3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/17/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+260)
To say this is a good spot for Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run would be a bit of an understatement.
When we have a matchup such as this one, you don't want to be passing it up. That's the easy way to put things for the home run leader in the majors and it sets up for Ohtani to extend that lead a bit more tonight. He will be going up against Casey Mize, who is allowing a whopping 2.67 HR/9 to lefties this season, along with a 36.7% fly-ball rate, a 47.5% hard-contact rate, and a 27.6% HR/FB ratio. Mize struggles with left-handed hitters this season, there's no way to sugarcoat it.
We flip to Ohtani, who comes in with a massive .375 ISO, a 173 wRC+, a 42.9% fly-ball rate, a 46.8% hard-contact rate, and a 35.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. We couldn't ask for better numbers in this matchup and it all leads to Ohtani adding another home run to his lead leading total this season. Side note, Jared Walsh (+330) also makes a ton of sense for a home run prop.
Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+260)
The Cleveland Indians are in a spot to hit multiple home runs tonight.
This is due to the fact they are going up against Bailey Ober, who is allowing exactly 2.03 HR/9 to BOTH left-handed and right-handed hitters. Ober's first season in the majors has not been kind to him and is clearly a pitcher we can attack via some home run props. Ober is also allowing a 41.8% fly-ball rate and a 35.8% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters, so we can start there for a home run option.
This leads us to Jose Ramirez, who has a solid .327 ISO, a 45.5% fly-ball rate, a 42.1% hard-contact rate, and a 21.1% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. Similar to Ohtani above, we are dealing with a phenomenal matchup and it should only lead to plenty of home run upside for the Indians tonight.
Alek Manoah Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Alek Manoah has plenty of strikeout upside and his prop is worth considering tonight.
In his first year in the majors, Manoah is carrying a very strong 29.3% strikeout rate, a 3.70 SIERA, and an 8.7% walk rate. He is proving to be everything the Toronto Blue Jays could've hoped for and is showing that he has ace material on the mound. Manoah comes in with nine strikeouts or more in three of his last four starts, showing he has a clear ceiling he can reach for.
He will be up against the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 23.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers with their current roster. That is is 18th in the league right now and while that isn't horrible, the Nationals' lineup is nothing to fear, so Manoah should be able to get deeper into the game and allow his 29.3% strikeout rate to shine. At nearly even money, siding with Manoah's upside is too good to pass up.
