MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/18/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+250)
The Boston Red Sox can post some big numbers with their matchup tonight.
With a matchup against Andrew Heaney, the Red Sox right-handed hitters are primed for multiple home runs. Heaney is allowing a whopping 2.21 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season, from a 47.1% fly-ball rate and a 39.2% hard-contact rate. Those are the exact type of numbers we like to see when looking for a pitcher who is home run prone.
This is truly a phenomenal spot for the righties and this is where J.D. Martinez should be able to shine tonight. He comes in with a .205 ISO, a 118 wRC+, and a 42.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hurlers this season. We saw Heaney struggle with the right-handed hitters on the Chicago White Sox last week and it's Boston's turn this week.
Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Shohei Ohtani didn't hit a home run last night, so we turn to his strikeout prop tonight?
It's weird, I know. A player to hit a home run last night and an over on his strikeout prop tonight. That is something we can only say for Ohtani and it's honestly awesome. His strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 tonight with plus money on the over and he has a soft matchup against the Detroit Tigers. With their current roster, the Tigers have a 25.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the second-worst in the league.
Ohtani comes in with a very strong 29.7% strikeout rate and has posted six strikeouts or more in three of his last four starts. With a very easy matchup, Ohtani should be able to push past the 6.5 prop and cash in on the plus money.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+260)
If the Los Angeles Dodgers don't hit multiple home runs tonight I'm going to be shocked
Really. The Dodgers are primed for a big offensive night and that is because they are going up against JT Brubaker, who is simply not a good pitcher. Brubaker is allowing 2.09 HR/9 to left-handed hitters and 1.93 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. And this isn't from some small sample size, he's pitched 112.1 innings in 2021. His 21.8% HR/FB and 22.8% HR/FB ratio versus lefties and righties, respectively, is horrible, and with the power the Dodgers have, they should be hitting multiple home runs.
We can turn to Max Muncy, who was out of the lineup yesterday, so he should be back in action today. Muncy comes in with .282 ISO, a 152 wRC+, a 38.8% fly-ball rate, and a 39.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season -- another ideal candidate who has home run upside. Again, any of the Dodgers' hitters, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Will Smith, etc. are all in a good spot to hit a home run tonight.
