3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/20/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Avisail Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+430)
The Milwaukee Brewers have a great matchup tonight, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them hit multiple home runs.
Why are they in a spot to hit multiple home runs? That would be due to the fact they are up against Patrick Corbin, who is allowing a whopping 2.41 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season, along with a 36.5% hard-contact rate and a 23.9% HR/FB rate. Corbin has given up a total of 28 home runs this season, 26 of which have come via right-handed hitters. They are clearly his kryptonite, thus, we will attack him with some righty power hitters.
This leads us to Avisail Garcia, who comes in with a strong 43.1% hard-contact rate, .247 ISO, 172 wRC+, and 20.0% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. This is setting up to be a big-time power matchup for the Brewers' righties, and Garcia should lead the way.
Eduardo Escobar (+310) or Willy Adames (+330) would also be in the conversation for a home run prop tonight.
Fernando Tatis To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Even though his odds aren't the longest, Fernando Tatis Jr. is always a great option for a home run prop.
Yes, the +240 odds for Tatis are on the lower end, but the matchup he has versus Matt Moore is too good to pass up. Moore comes in with a 5.10 xFIP, allowing 2.06 HR/9 with a 44.0% fly-ball rate and 36.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you can find on this slate, so yeah, the righties for the San Diego Padres are in a spot to live up to their Slam Diego nickname.
Tatis, of course, has great numbers versus lefties with a 135 wRC+, .333 ISO, 40.8% fly-ball rate, and huge 48.0% hard-contact rate. He has three home runs in the four games since returning from his injury and should continue that power tonight.
Lance McCullers Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Lance McCullers is in a prime spot to cash in on his strikeout prop.
McCullers is at home tonight and taking on the Seattle Mariners, who comes in with a 25.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league. This shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Mariners have been in this spot for most of the season, and they've been a team we've targeted multiple times. McCullers has a 27.7% strikeout rate this season, but it's been getting better.
Since the All-Star break, McCullers has started six games, and in that time, he has posted a strikeout rate of 29.6% or higher in five of those starts. He has posted a strikeout rate of 32% or higher in four of those six starts. This has led to him posting eight strikeouts or more in five of the six, showing a very high level of consistency.
Given the matchup and plus money, the over 7.5 strikeouts is the spot to look tonight.
