3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/24/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adam Duvall To Hit a Home Run (+240)
"If you ain't first, you're last." - Ricky Bobby.
I assume that's the motto Adam Duvall uses when he's at the plate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Duvall is carrying a high 31.5% strikeout rate in the split, but he also comes in with a .207 ISO, 59.7% fly-ball rate, and 37.5% hard-contact rate. It seems like he's legitimately trying to hit a home run every time he is at the plate with the platoon advantage. Yeah, it causes him to swing a miss a lot, but the fly ball potential from him is evidently clear.
Duvall has an ideal matchup tonight versus Andrew Heaney, who righties have tagged for 2.18 homers per nine, a 47.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.9% hard-contact rate. Of the 25 home runs Heaney has allowed this season, 21 have come to right-handed hitters.
Realistically, all the Atlanta Braves who will hit from the right side are in a good spot tonight, putting dudes like Jorge Soler (+200), Ozzie Albies (+230), or Austin Riley (+240) also in the conversation.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+240)
If the Boston Red Sox hit multiple home runs tonight, don't be surprised.
The Sox are at home in Fenway Park, providing us with one of the best hitting environments on the slate to attack for some homes. They are going up against Griffin Jax, who is a very inexperienced pitcher for the Minnesota Twins and a guy we should be actively looking to target. Versus lefties, he comes in allowing 1.65 homer per nine, a 5.38 xFIP, 10.3% walk rate, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 42.0% hard-contact rate. Yes, this is from a small 44.0-inning sample size this season, but none of it has been inspiring.
We can turn to Rafael Devers, who has insane power numbers this season. With the platoon advantage, Devers owns a .339 ISO, 147 wRC+, 45.8% fly-ball rate, and 46.8% hard-contact rate. You'd be hard-pressed to find a hitter with that type of power in such a favorable matchup tonight.
German Marquez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
With plus money on the over, German Marquez's strikeout prop is worth considering .
Sitting at 6.5 strikeouts, Marquez's prop is very appealing, because he is taking on the Chicago Cubs, whose current roster comes in with a 25.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the second-worst mark in the league.
Marquez holds a solid 25.1% strikeout rate on the season, but he has seen that increase in recent starts. In his eight starts since the beginning of July, Marquez has posted a single-game strikeout rate of 28.0% or higher six times. He is flexing the strikeout upside almost every time on the mound and has a soft matchup versus the Cubs to continue that trend.
