MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/24/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Over 8.5 (-102): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Despite having 14 games on the docket tonight, there isn't much in the way of standout betting value, according to our projections. We don't have any bet rated as more than two-star play.
One such two-star bet is the over in the Washington Nationals-Miami Marlins game. The pitching matchup pits Erick Fedde against Jesus Luzardo.
Luzardo is a top prospect who came over to the Marlins from the Oakland Athletics. Things haven't gone well for him overall this season, especially since he was dealt to Miami. In a small sample of 17 2/3 innings with the Marlins, Luzardo has surrendered 19 earned runs and 2.26 dingers per nine with a strikeout rate (19.1%) and walk rate (18.0%) that are nearly even. A walk rate that high is a little flukey, but he's got a 9.4% walk rate in 126 2/3 career MLB frames, so it is something that has always been an issue for him.
While it doesn't make much sense, the Nats' offense has been producing well lately despite losing Trea Turner. Over the last 30 days, Washington has the sixth-highest wOBA (.332). In addition to that, they own the second-highest walk rate in that span (10.4%), which should make them a brutal matchup for Luzardo. As such, we have the Nats doing the heavy lifting to get us to the over, projecting them for 5.02 runs.
Fedde has a cozy matchup against a Marlins offense that's not good, but Fedde isn't all that great, either. For the season, he's pitched to a 4.60 SIERA. His lowly 7.8% swinging-strike rate tells us his already meh 20.6% strikeout rate is probably higher than it should be. Fedde has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, and we peg Miami to score 4.32 runs today.
In all, our model has 9.34 total runs being scored, and we project the over to hit 57.0% of the time.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5 (+100): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Tyler Mahle and Corbin Burnes are quality pitchers, but our algorithm points to the 7.5-run total being a touch too low.
Mahle checks a lot of boxes as a hurler with a 3.73 SIERA and 28.0% strikeout rate. However, he has a couple things working against him in this one. For starters, the Brewers are a really good offense, and they're hot right now, mashing their way to a .344 wOBA over the last 30 days, which is tied for the fourth-best mark in that time. And Mahle has had trouble with this lineup, giving up eight earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts against Milwaukee -- both of which came in July.
Burnes' season-long numbers are outstanding, including a 2.57 SIERA and 35.1% strikeout rate. With that said, his strikeout rate in the second half is down 6.4 percentage points compared to his first-half clip, and the Reds' offense has been baseball's best over the last month, putting up a gaudy .365 wOBA with 55 jacks in the past 30 days -- with both marks checking in as MLB-best numbers by a comfortable margin.
We project both pitchers to do well, but we also side with the over. Our model has Milwaukee winning 4.74-3.93. That's 8.67 total runs, and we give the over a 59.3% chance to hit.
