3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/25/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adolis Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+320)
Adolis Garcia has massive power numbers, and his home run potential is clear every night.
In his first full year in the Majors, Garcia has piled up 27 home runs and has the signs of being a true power hitter. This is great to see because we can turn to his home run prop and know that the power is always going to be there for him in any matchup.
He comes in with a .250 ISO, 120 wRC+, 41.2% fly-ball rate, 37.7% hard-contact rate, and 24.0% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. That power is undeniable, and at +320 odds, Garcia is looking like a great option tonight.
He will be up against Zach Plesac, who is allowing 2.25 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 4.70 xFIP, 39.5% fly-ball rate, and 20.0% HR/FB rate. Despite being a right-handed pitcher, Plesac struggles more against righty hitters compared to lefties this season. Garcia is primed for some power tonight.
Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run (+200)
Is Kyle Schwarber in a spot to hit his first home run with the Boston Red Sox?
Schwarber has yet to hit a home run since joining the Red Sox, but that could all change tonight versus Bailey Ober. This season, Ober is allowing a .228 ISO versus left-handed hitters, along with a 4.68 xFIP, 2.17 HR/9, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.7% hard-contact rate. Ober is in his first year in the Majors, and he is struggling versus lefty hitters -- there's no other way to put it.
It's no secret that Schwarber has looked very average since joining the Red Sox -- no home runs and no RBIs in eight games -- but this is a soft matchup for him to get back on track. Schwarber still comes in with a .379 ISO, 156 wRC+, 40.3% fly-ball rate, 41.7% hard-contact rate, and massive 39.7% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers. Schwarber gets the ball in the air versus righties, and it's going for a home run a good percentage of the time.
Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Blake Snell is a great pitcher, but the under on his strikeout prop is the spot to look at tonight.
There's no denying Snell's 29.3% strikeout rate this season, but he's also carrying a terrible 13.7% walk rate this season. Those are the basics for Snell, so let's turn to his matchup versus the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, a team that always presents plenty of danger.
The Dodgers come in with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is 20th in the league. They are very patient at the plate and simply don't waste opportunities. They have an 8.8% walk rate, which is 16th in the league, putting them right at the league average.
So how do we see this game playing out? The Dodgers' lineup can post runs in a hurry, forcing any pitcher out of the game early -- this isn't a secret. What if that doesn't happen? Well, the Dodgers still don't waste chances at the plate, putting Snell in a tougher matchup to rack up those strikeouts he needs to hit the over on his prop. It appears there are more paths to Snell hitting the under than there are for Snell hitting the over tonight.
