3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/27/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Brandon Lowe To Hit a Home Run (+200)
The Tampa Bay Rays are going to hit multiple home runs tonight.
This would due to the fact that they are going up against Matt Harvey, who is allowing 1.52 HR/9 to lefties and 1.35 HR/9 to righties this season. All of the Rays' hitters are viable options tonight, but I want to focus on Brandon Lowe.
Lowe comes in with an awesome 157 wRC+, a big .306 ISO, a 45.8% fly-ball rate, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Lowe has the ideal profile of what we look for in hitters with high home run potential.
As mentioned above, Harvey is allowing a lot of home runs to lefties, but he also has a 5.25 xFIP, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and 37.0% hard-contact rate. Add in the fact this game is in a great hitter's park like Baltimore, and we are primed for some home runs tonight.
Avisail Garcia To Hit a Home Run (+400)
Avisail Garcia is crushing the ball right now and is a great option for a home run prop.
Garcia is having a solid year and is in the midst of a power surge. In June, Garcia had a .465 xSLG. In July, he had a .500 xSLG. And now in August, he has a massive .723 xSLG. On top of that, his xwOBA, launch angle, and barrel rate are all on the rise in August. This has led to him producing 6 home runs this month in only 55 at-bats. Compared to the month of June (5 home runs in 87 at-bats) or May (7 home runs in 86 at-bats), Garcia is clearly surging right now and his home run prop at +400 looks amazing tonight.
He will be going up against Andrew Albers, who only has 4.0 innings pitched in the Majors this season but has 124.2 MLB innings throughout his career, so we'll turn there for some numbers. Albers has allowed 1.27 HR/9 to righties, along with a 4.64 xFIP and 37.6% fly-ball rate.
This is a great matchup for Garcia, who is red-hot at the plate.
Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-124)
Where should you lean with Aaron Nola's strikeout prop tonight?
Nola comes in with a very strong 29.3% strikeout rate this season, showing he is still one of the elite pitchers in the league. He should be able to flex that strikeout upside tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who come in with a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league.
Nola has been able to rack up double-digit strikeouts five separate times this season and given the matchup tonight, that is fully within his range of outcomes. The over is the only place to look for Nola's prop.
