4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 8/27/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Steven Matz, SP, Blue Jays
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
With high-upside arms like Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove available, it's not a great slate to try to pinch pennies at pitcher. But Steven Matz checks a few boxes.
He's got a friendly matchup with the Detroit Tigers. After a mid-season surge, Detroit's offense is slumping. Over the past 30 days, they're 21st in wOBA (.306) with the 9th-highest strikeout rate (24.1%).
Mats brings a little strikeout juice to the table with a 22.4% strikeout rate, and he held the Tigers to five hits and one run in six innings last time out. The problem was he fanned just one. He'll need more punchouts tonight to be a hit in DFS, and he's capable of it, striking out at least seven in five starts in 2021.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Blue Jays
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
Sticking with the Jays, Toronto's offense is in a plum spot versus Matt Manning. The Jays' 5.28 implied total puts them on the stacking radar, and Corey Dickerson is a way to get low-salary exposure to them.
Dickerson will have the platoon advantage, and he's swinging it well in the second half, posting a .341 wOBA with a 40.8% hard-hit rate in that time.
Manning has an excellent minor-league track record, but he's having a difficult rookie campaign. Across 53 1/3 frames, he's struggled to a 5.44 SIERA and 12.0% strikeout rate. Lefties are striking out just 8.5% of the time against him.
Michael Chavis, 2B/1B, Pirates
FanDuel Salary: $2,100
Michael Chavis has been slotted first, first and second in the lineup in his past three games. That alone makes him a notable value target at his salary of $2,100.
He's got a matchup in which he can pop a dinger, going up against J.A. Happ. The St. Louis Cardinals' lefty owns a 4.89 SIERA and 18.0% strikeout rate. Righties have mauled him for a .375 wOBA and 47.3% fly-ball rate. We project Happ to surrender 1.04 homers tonight, the second-most on the slate.
This set up very well for Chavis, who has hit three bombs in 39 plate appearances versus southpaws this season. In the split, he holds a .318 wOBA and 38.5 hard-hit rate. For his career, he's launched 13 jacks in 207 plate appearances with the platoon advantage.
Luis Urias, 2B, SS, 3B, Brewers
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
The Milwaukee Brewers are a nifty under-the-radar stack tonight against Andrew Albers. While Milwaukee's 4.99 implied total is an enticing number, it's only the eighth-best on the slate, so they shouldn't be too popular.
Albers is a lefty who has a career 15.4% strikeout rate over 124 2/3 MLB innings. Right-handed hitters strike out just 14.4% of the time against him.
If Urias is in the lineup, he's a sweet value pick. He's recorded a .337 wOBA and 47.0% fly-ball rate this year versus lefties. In the second half, Urias sports a .374 wOBA, and his positional flexibility can be super handy. He is our model's fourth-best point-per-dollar value among all bats.
