MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/31/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Over 9.0 (-128): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals +1.5 (-172): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals Moneyline (-116) 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model sees this game playing out a little differently than what oddsmakers are expecting, and there are plenty of places to take advantage.
The most obvious place is on the total. We've got Matt Moore and Patrick Corbin going head-to-head, and that puts both offenses in a great spot.
Corbin's 4.58 SIERA and 18.6% strikeout rate are both career-worst numbers. He's also permitting a whopping 2.05 dingers per nine -- which is another career-worst clip (by a mile). We can say much of the same for Moore, whose 4.93 SIERA and 1.95 homers per nine are career-worst marks. Both of these guys are struggling big time, and we project there to be a total of 10.96 runs in this one, giving the over a 60.1% chance to hit.
We also like the Washington Nationals to win and cover. Washington's offense has been the much better of these two lineups of late, sitting second in wOBA (.339) over the last 14 days, compared to the Philadelphia Phillies' clip of .310. We have Washington winning outright 61.2% of the time and give them 72.4% odds to cover.
Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Athletics -1.5 (+140): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Athletics Moneyline (-120): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
While I'm a big fan of Tarik Skubal, he's got a tough matchup today versus the Oakland Athletics, and our model is backing the favored A's.
Skubal is coming off a 10-punchout, five-inning outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, and for the season, he sports a 3.88 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. What could get him in trouble today is his issues with right-handed hitters. Skubal is allowing 46.1% fly-ball rate and 2.31 homers per nine in the split, and with guys like Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Josh Harrison and Matt Chapman, the A's have some quality right-handed sticks.
Cole Irvin will be on the bump for Oakland. His season-long numbers -- including a 4.85 SIERA and 15.9% strikeout rate -- are nowhere near as good as Skubal's, but he has a much softer matchup. After a mid-season surge, the Detroit Tigers' offense is slumping hard. Across the last 14 days, they're next to last in wOBA (.269) with the 11th-highest strikeout rate (23.6%).
Oakland is listed at -120 on the moneyline, which implies win odds of 54.5%. Our projections have the A's winning 59.8% of the time. We also like them to cover 48.6% of the time while the +140 price on Oakland's runline implies odds of only 41.7%.
