3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/1/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Salvador Perez has been super hot as of late and has a great matchup to keep the streak going.
The veteran catcher has turned back the clock this year and is bringing the power each and every night. Perez comes in with five home runs in his last six games and has a juicy matchup to add another homer tonight.
He will be going up against Logan Allen, who only has 28.2 innings pitched in the MLB this season, so we'll look to his career numbers where he has 67.0 innings pitched. In that time, Allen has allowed 1.78 HR/9, a 5.34 xFIP, a 12.0% walk rate, a 44.6% hard-contact rate, and a 21.7% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters.
Perez comes in sports a 182 wRC+, massive .381 ISO, 43.1% fly-ball rate, 43.1% hard-contact rate, and 36.2% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. He is crushing the ball -- there's no other way to put it -- and his matchup versus Allen sets him up to start September off with a home run.
Josh Donaldson To Hit a Home Run (+300)
Is The Bringer of Rain going to send one over the fence tonight?
That, of course, would be Josh Donaldson, who not only brings the rain but brings the power each and every time he is at the plate. Speaking of power, Donaldson has a .250 ISO, 133 wRC+, 37.7% fly-ball rate, 41.6% hard-contact rate, and 27.6% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Those types of power numbers put him in the conversation for a home run on a regular basis, and tonight we should see that on full display.
Donaldson is taking on Justin Steele, who is a very young pitcher for the Chicago Cubs with only 26.0 innings pitched in the MLB this year, and he's not one we need to be worried about. In his short MLB career, Steele is allowing 2.55 HR/9 to righties, alongside a 30.8% fly-ball rate and 31.3% HR/FB rate this season. Of course, all of those numbers are going to fluctuate because it's a small sample size, but Steele is struggling right now, and you should look to attack him with Donaldson tonight.
Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Chris Sale is back for the Boston Red Sox, and he is looking great.
Sale has started three games for the Sox and totaled 21 strikeouts in 15.1 innings so far. But can he reach eight strikeouts tonight? Eight strikeouts would have him hitting the over on his prop tonight, which is sitting at plus money.
His 34.4% strikeout rate this season can actually be considered trustworthy -- even though it's only from 15.1 innings -- because he has posted a 35.6%, 38.4%, and 36.2% strikeout rate over the past three seasons. We know all of this, we know he is great, and we should look to trust him in this matchup.
Speaking of the matchup, Sale is going up against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a 24.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league. With Sale's historic success, his strong start to the year, and a soft matchup against the Rays, the over is the place to look.
