4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 9/7/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Zac Gallen, P, Diamondbacks
FanDuel Salary: $7,900
Zac Gallen is having a funky season, but he's got a dream date tonight with the Texas Rangers. Texas is tied for last in wOBA for the year (.292), and they are 22nd in wOBA over the last month (.308). The Rangers' 3.64 implied total is the slate's second-lowest clip.
After a rough stretch, Gallen is starting to get dialed in. Across his last three starts, he's given up three total earned runs while while fanning 19 in 18 innings. For the season, he's posted a 26.7% strikeout rate.
We project Gallen for 31.0 FanDuel points. That's the most outside of the slate's big three of Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell. If you want to save coin on the bump, Gallen is the way to go.
Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B, Reds
FanDuel Salary: $2,300
The Cincinnati Reds don't yet have an implied total posted, but when it's up, it'll likely be a big number. Cincy is taking on Adrian Sampson, and the wind is blowing out a bit to right at Wrigley.
Enter Mike Moustakas.
Moustakas is projected to hit fifth, and even though he's having a down year, he's been serviceable against righties, putting up a .335 wOBA and 48.4% fly-ball rate in the split. A campaign ago, he had a .360 wOBA with the platoon advantage.
Sampson had a meager 16.9% strikeout rate this year in 81 2/3 frames in Triple-A. Back in 2019, Sampson's last season in the bigs, lefties rocked him for a 46.3% hard-hit rate.
Moustakas is our model's third-best point-per-dollar stick on the slate.
Edward Olivares, OF, Royals
FanDuel Salary: $2,000
With a 5.10 implied total against Alexander Wells, the Kansas City Royals are stackable today.
Not only is KC benefitting from a park boost at Camden Yards, but Wells just isn't very good. His Triple-A numbers are fairly blah (21.9% strikeout rate), and he's got a 16.1% strikeout rate and 5.39 SIERA in his first 18 2/3 MLB innings.
Edward Olivares popped 13 taters in 276 Triple-A plate appearances this year, and he's hit five homers in his first 89 plate appearances in The Show. He was slotted fourth in the lineup yesterday versus a lefty, and if he's once again in a meaty spot in the order, he'll be mouth-watering at the minimum salary.
The sample is small, but Olivares owns a 45.8% fly-ball rate against southpaws in his brief MLB tenure.
Joc Pederson, OF, Braves
FanDuel Salary: $2,500
Joc Pederson isn't a lock to be in the lineup. If he's in there, he's an enticing value target as a way to get economical exposure to an Atlanta Braves offense that has a juicy 5.34 implied total against Paolo Espino.
Espino has just a 19.7% strikeout rate in 86 innings this season, and that number drops to 17.3% versus left-handed hitters. Lefties have a 38.5% hard-hit rate against him.
Pederson has long been a guy who thrives with the platoon advantage. He sports a 48.1% fly-ball rate in the split in 2021, and we project him for 0.25 dingers tonight, the third-most of anyone with a salary under $3,000.
