MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/9/21

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Sep 9th, 2021

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Salvador Perez To Hit a Home Run (+220)

When a hitter is hot, they're hot, there's no other way to put it.

Salvador Perez hit a home run last night, and we are going back to him tonight. Regardless of what he did last night, the matchup he has against John Means tonight is a great one. That's really what it comes down to. I wouldn't care if Perez hasn't hit a home run in a month. Tonight's matchup is solid because Means is allowing a .223 ISO, 2.11 HR/9, 49.6% fly-ball rate, and 16.8% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters this season.

Perez comes in with a monster .356 ISO, 167 wRC+, 43.2% fly-ball rate, 43.2% hard-contact rate, and 33.3% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers. The power numbers are there for Perez in spades this season, and there is no reason you shouldn't look right back to the veteran for another home run tonight.

Juan Soto To Hit a Home Run (+360)

We are going to see some home runs in Atlanta tonight.

There were four home runs between the two teams last night, and that is what we could be seeing tonight. This means we want to look directly at Juan Soto, who comes in with a .220 ISO, 173 wRC+, 41.0% hard-contact rate, and 26.3% HR/FB rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. His fly-ball rate is 25.7% in this split for the entire season, but it's been increasing in recent months, which is always an encouraging sign.

He is up against Huascar Ynoa, who is allowing a 38.7% fly-ball rate and 36.8% hard-contact rate but only a 6.9% HR/FB rate versus lefties this season. As I've said before, a pitcher simply cannot allow that many fly balls and so few of them go for home runs. The league average HR/FB rate versus left-handed hitters this season is 13.1%. Ynoa is due for some regression, and Soto can get that started tonight.