3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 9/13/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mookie Betts To Hit a Home Run (+260)
Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+330)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to hit multiple home runs tonight.
That's really the best way to put things for them tonight because they have an amazing matchup versus Zac Gallen and, ultimately, the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen. This season, Gallen is allowing 2.30 HR/9 with a 48.7% fly-ball rate, 45.7% hard-contact rate, and 21.4% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters. Simply put, Gallen isn't a good pitcher, and the Dodgers are primed for multiple homers tonight.
We turn to Mookie Betts tonight, who comes in with an awesome .238 ISO, 145 wRC+, 41.8% fly-ball rate, and 42.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Betts has the ideal profile of a hitter we'd look to attack Gallen, making it too good to pass up tonight.
Also, consider Will Smith, who comes in with a .277 ISO, 161 wRC+, 47.3% fly-ball rate, and 38.3% hard-contact rate versus righties. He's another hitter with a great batted-ball profile that lines up against Gallen.
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108)
The over on Eduardo Rodriguez's strikeout prop is the place to look tonight.
The prop is sitting at 5.5 against the Seattle Mariners, and hitting the over is something Rodriguez should be able to accomplish. Since the start of August, Rodriguez has seen his strikeout rate fluctuate a good bit, being as high as 47.6% and as low as 7.4%. Even with this recent inconsistency, he is still maintaining a 27.2% strikeout rate on the season, which is the fourth-highest among pitchers on tonight's slate.
The matchup versus the Mariners should allow him to reach towards the over since they come in with a 25.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league. Look past a small sample size with a bit of inconsistency and focus on Rodriguez's ceiling and soft matchup for his strikeout prop.
Sandy Alcantara Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Sandy Alcantara has been unbelievable lately.
There's really no other way to put for Alcantara, who has posted 11 strikeouts or more in three of his last four starts. It's an elite level of production -- that isn't a fluke -- we should look to rely on yet again tonight considering his prop is only 6.5. Since the All-Star break, Alcantara has posted six strikeouts or more in seven of his 10 starts.
That is the level we should be seeing him reach tonight against the Washington Nationals, who come in with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 18th in the league. Expect Alcantara to keep rolling tonight and hit the over on his prop.
