MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/16/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mike Zunino To Hit a Home Run (+270)
If there's one thing Mike Zunino is good at, it's hitting home runs off of left-handed pitchers.
You could call Zunino a classic example of the three true outcomes in baseball -- a walk, a strikeout, or a home run. He has an 11.0% walk rate, a 28.0% strikeout rate, and a massive .548 ISO versus left-handed pitchers. He swings and misses a lot, but when he connects, it may very well be a long ball. He has 36 total hits off of lefty pitchers this season, and 15 of them have gone for a home run.
On top of that, he has a 248 wRC+, a 62.0% fly-ball rate, a 43.7% hard-contact rate, and a 34.1% HR/FB ratio this season. It's all power with Zunino in this split, and he is in a spot to add another home run to his total.
He'll be up against Tyler Alexander, who is allowing a .214 ISO, a 4.76 xFIP, 1.74 HR/9, a 44.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. It's an awesome matchup for the Tampa Bay Rays' righties, so consider Nelson Cruz (+260) or Randy Arozarena (+360) as well.
Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Should we consider Jordan Montgomery's strikeout prop tonight?
Montgomery's strikeout prop is sitting at 5.5 with plus money on the over, and he is in a spot to cash that tonight versus the Baltimore Orioles. This season, the Orioles have a 23.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league. We know the Orioles aren't a good team and attacking them via a strikeout prop is always a solid choice.
Montgomery has a 23.7% strikeout rate on the season but has seen that increase in some of his recent starts. In three of his six starts since the trade deadline, Montgomery has posted at least a 26.3% strikeout rate. If Monty can continue to push that higher, he has a good chance of hitting his personal over tonight against a free-swinging Baltimore lineup.
