3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/21/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Patrick Wisdom To Hit a Home Run (+280)
Any time we can target a bad pitcher for home run props, we go for it.
That pitcher would be Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins, who is one of, if not the worst, pitchers on the entire slate. This season, he is allowing a 5.62 xFIP, 2.67 HR/9, 54.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He is an absolute gas can of a pitcher, and we should look to target him the last few times he is pitching this year.
We turn to Patrick Wisdom, who comes in with a very solid .291 ISO, 116 wRC+, 48.1% fly-ball rate, and 46.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is the ideal matchup of a pitcher and a hitter for some serious home run upside tonight.
Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+410)
The first half of the season was a little slow for Matt Chapman, but he has turned things around.
In 89 games in the first half of the season, Chapman only had 11 home runs. That was rather disappointing production from one of the more consistent hitters in the league, but the dog days of summer have treated Chapman well, with 15 home runs in only 52 games. It's a clear step up in production for him, and that can certainly continue tonight.
Chapman comes in with a .278 ISO, 132 wRC+, 50.7% fly-ball rate, 34.5% hard-contact rate, and 25.5% HR/FB rate versus lefties this season. Those stats line up very nicely against Marco Gonzales, who is allowing 2.11 HR/9, a 5.62 xFIP, and a 51.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters in 2021.
Alek Manoah Under 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Even with a little juice, the under is the place to look on Alek Manoah's strikeout prop.
With -140 odds, the under on this prop has the juice, but it's the right place to look tonight. Manoah is coming off a big 10-strikeout performance against the same Tampa Bay Rays team he faces tonight, but prior to that, he posted 5 strikeouts or fewer in four of his last five starts. HIs 26.6% strikeout rate on the season is solid, but in eight starts since the start of August, Manoah has been under a 20.0% strikeout rate five times.
We add in the fact the Rays have a 113 wRC+ (3rd best) and a .203 ISO (3rd best) versus right-handed pitchers this season, and it sets up to be a difficult matchup for Manoah. Even with the juice, the under is the correct bet for Manoah's strikeout prop tonight.
