3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (+260)
How many home runs are the New York Yankees going to hit tonight?
That is the question I'm asking since they have a phenomenal matchup versus Taylor Hearn and ultimately, the Texas Rangers' bullpen. Hearn comes in allowing 1.72 HR/9, a 4.89 xFIP, a 40.0% fly-ball rate, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. The Rangers' bullpen is allowing 1.57 HR/9 to righties, which is the third-worst in the league. The Yankees' hitters are going to be in a good spot at every point in the game, and we want to capture that via home run props.
Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are in a great spot tonight, and I can't decide between them.
Judge comes in with a 159 wRC+, a .262 ISO, a 39.3% fly-ball rate, a 49.1% hard-contact rate, and a 27.3% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season.
Stanton is carrying a 138 wRC+, a .224 ISO, a 37.2% fly-ball rate, a 38.3% hard-contact rate, and a 25.7% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers as well.
This really is an awesome spot for the Yankees' righties tonight, and we should be seeing multiple home runs from their lineup.
Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers on tonight's slate, so let's look at his strikeout prop.
There's no doubt that Wheeler is an elite pitcher in MLB and should be able to show that off tonight versus the Baltimore Orioles. Wheeler comes with a very solid 28.9% strikeout rate this season, a rate he has consistently held or exceeded in his recent starts. He has posted seven strikeouts or more in five of his last eight starts.
The Orioles come in with a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. Given the favorable matchup for Wheeler, he should be able to push past the 7.5-strikeout prop and cash in on plus money in that spot.
Evan Longoria To Hit a Home Run (+490)
Vincent Velasquez is not a good pitcher.
That's really the easiest way to put things when it comes to Velasquez, who made his first start for the San Diego Padres last week and allowed two home runs. That is what we should be seeing from him tonight since he is allowing a .265 ISO, a 4.97 xFIP, 2.15 HR/9, a 48.6% fly-ball rate, and a 37.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season.
We look to Evan Longoria to exploit that. He has juicy, +490 odds tonight and is in a great spot to hit one over the fence. This season versus right-handed pitchers, he is posting a .218 ISO, a 127 wRC+, a 41.5% fly-ball rate, and a big 49.2% hard-contact rate. Even as a righty himself, this is an awesome matchup for Longoria -- and several other San Francisco Giants' hitters as well.
