MLB

MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/23/21

Thomas Vecchio  —  @Tom_Vecchio1 Sep 23rd, 2021

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+300)

There's no reason to overcomplicate things -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best home run hitter in the league.

Guerrero is tied for the league lead (46) in home runs, and he has a chance to add to that total tonight. He'll be going up against Michael Pineda, who is allowing 1.30 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season with a 36.4% fly-ball rate and a 35.9% hard-contact rate. Pineda's numbers are slightly lower than I'd ideally like to see, but he hasn't shown anything that would scare me away either.

Guerrero comes in with a 180 wRC+, a .314 ISO, a 37.5% fly-ball rate, a 44.8% hard-contact rate, and a 27.9% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season. A notable 36 of his 46 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, so this is clearly a matchup he can excel in.

Aaron Nola Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+104)

Aaron Nola is the best pitcher on tonight's slate.

It's really that simple for Nola, who is doing his best recently to help get the Philadelphia Phillies into the playoffs. Nola comes in with seven strikeouts or more in four of his last six starts, which is driven by a 35.5% strikeout rate or higher in each of those starts.

He will be up against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight, who come in with a 23.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 16th in the league. They are right at the league average in strikeout rate, but Nola is reaching a new level of production, and the plus money is too good to pass up in this spot.