MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/23/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles

Over 9.0 (-105): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Our model is expecting a lot of runs tonight at Camden Yards, and we like this game to get to the over.

This pitching matchup is Glenn Otto against Zac Lowther.

Otto has the more impressive underlying metrics -- including a 3.83 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate -- but they've come in a small sample of 16 1/3 MLB innings. In his brief time in the bigs, Otto has allowed 17 earned runs, and, counting his MLB time, he's pitched all of 46 2/3 innings above Double-A. Plus, this Baltimore Orioles lineup has been pretty solid of late as they sit 14th in wOBA over the last 30 days (.323).

As for Lowther, he has a much easier matchup against a blah Texas Rangers offense, but he's been pretty bad in his first 19 2/3 MLB frames, struggling to a 5.04 SIERA. Lowther has struck out just 19.4% of hitters and has permitted a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 40.6% fly-ball rate, which has led to 2.29 dingers per nine innings.

We project both offenses to thrive, forecasting a 5.04-5.00 win for the O's. We have the over winning out 52.3% of the time.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.0 (-118): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

This is another over our algorithm sides with on tonight's small slate.

Connor Overton is starting for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he hasn't worked more than three innings in any outing this year. While Overton has been decent early in his MLB career, we will see a good amount of the Pirates' bullpen, and that should be good for over bettors as the Pirates' relievers have the sixth-worst SIERA (4.29). A Philadelphia Phillies offense that is ninth in wOBA over the past 30 days (.328) should be able to keep rolling in this one.

The fear with betting on the over is that Aaron Nola could mow through the Pirates if he's on. But Nola just hasn't been on all that often in the second half, even if his season-long marks are still excellent. Across his last six starts, Nola has surrendered 17 runs in 34 innings.

We project the Phillies to score 5.81 runs, so we don't need too much from Pittsburgh's offense to get us to the over. We think they push across 3.81 runs. That's 9.62 total runs, and we give the over a 59.4% chance to hit.