3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 9/23/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Glenn Otto, P, Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $6,500
Glenn Otto is not catching any breaks so far in his brief MLB career. Over 16 1/3 innings, he's sporting an unsightly 9.37 ERA and has allowed 17 runs. Yikes.
But under the hood, things look a lot more promising. He boasts a 3.83 SIERA and 24.7% strikeout rate. Otto also has a promising minor-league track record, including a massive 40.7% strikeout rate in 65 1/3 frames in Double-A this year. That makes him intriguing at this salary.
The Texas Rangers have not yet let Otto toss more than 84 pitches in a game in The Show, and the Baltimore Orioles aren't an easy matchup at Camden Yards. But among the value pitching options on this four-game slate, Otto is the best dart throw.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Blue Jays
FanDuel Salary: $2,300
The Toronto Blue Jays are going to be a chalk stack tonight. They carry a slate-best 5.05 implied total into a date with Michael Pineda.
Corey Dickerson is a way to get low-salary exposure to Toronto, and Dickerson will have the platoon advantage. In that split this season, Dickerson owns a 35.4% hard-hit rate, and while that's not all that saucy, Dickerson posted a .380 wOBA in the split back in 2019. And most of his appeal is tied to his salary and spot in this potent lineup.
Pineda is allowing 1.66 dingers per nine and a 42.8% fly-ball rate to left-handed bats, so you can do worse than throw Dickerson into some of your Jays stacks.
Charlie Culberson, SS/OF, Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $2,100
Charlie Culberson has been really good against southpaws this season, and he's taking on Zac Lowther.
Versus lefties, Culberson is hitting .341 with a .387 wOBA. Lowther, meanwhile, has given up a .401 wOBA, 44.0% hard-hit rate and 46.0% fly-ball rate to righty bats in his brief MLB tenure.
Our model projects Culberson as the seventh-best point-per-dollar bat. The Rangers have a 4.59 implied total and are a fun contrarian stacking option on this slate.
