3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Monday 9/27/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that these low-salary picks can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique.
Cole Irvin, P, Athletics
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Monday's two-game main slate is a fairly terrifying one that involves just four choices at pitcher -- all value options.
Two of them are at Coors Field, which means the decision likely comes down to Chris Flexen and Cole Irvin. Irvin is the choice personally, but he is far from a safe one.
Irvin has been pitching slightly better lately than his 6.29 xFIP in August. In his past three starts, Irvin has a 4.18 xFIP and a 35.6% hard-hit rate. That return to limiting hard contact is more like the first-half version of himself, and his 20.0% strikeout rate in this stretch is actually even better than his first-half mark of 17.6%.
The Mariners are a notably softer matchup for lefties, as their active roster has just a 93 wRC+ for the 2021 season against southpaws. Their 24.6% strikeout rate has also provided plenty of upside in daily fantasy.
In the superior park for pitching tonight, Irvin has the softer matchup, and he is pitching well enough recently to have the green light once again.
Raimel Tapia, OF, Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $2,900
The popular thing to do on tonight's slate will be to use a pitcher in Seattle and stack Coors Field. Popular, though, does not mean incorrect.
A DFS player has an average of $3,300 (or more) per roster spot on FanDuel using either pitcher in Seattle, but in order to stack the high-salary studs at Coors, it might take a value play in each side of the stack. For the Rockies, enter Raimel Tapia.
Tapia's discount comes largely due to his season-long .113 isolated power (ISO) against right-handed pitching. That is his better side, as well. Tapia's odds of hitting a ball over the right-field scoreboard at Coors are suboptimal.
He still provides plenty of value at the top of the Blake Street Bombers' lineup. His .311 wOBA is serviceable against righties in this game environment, and more importantly, his 12.3% strikeout rate means he is putting the ball in play. That skill at Coors Field is rewarded in the long run.
Tapia also has 16 stolen bases this year, so that upside is still present -- although less likely in the final week of the season with nothing to play for.
Yadiel Hernandez, OF, Nationals
FanDuel Salary: $2,900
If forced to choose one value outfielder between Tapia and Yadiel Hernandez, it would be Hernandez by a nanometer.
The Nationals' outfielder has provided more power to his squad than Tapia down the stretch, as Hernandez has a .141 ISO against righties since the trade deadline. Still, Hernandez has posted a .307 wOBA versus right-handers in that same stretch. He is getting on base nearly as often as Tapia but is hitting for much more power.
The Nats see struggling right-hander German Marquez in this one. On a normal slate, Marquez would likely be an avoid to stack against. His 4.19 xFIP since the trade deadline implies his 6.50 ERA in that same span has been inflated by some poor luck. Still, Marquez's 40.4% hard-hit rate against in the sample is worrisome -- especially considering the ballpark he will be toeing the slab in this evening.
Therefore, the Nats are indisputably a top stack of this short slate, and Hernandez makes getting up to Juan Soto and Josh Bell significantly easier.
