4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 9/28/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Charlie Morton, SP, Braves
FanDuel Salary: $8.600
This is a loaded pitching slate -- we have four hurlers projected for at least 36 FanDuel points -- so you need upside in the pitching slot. However, it's also a Coors slate, and that game has a 12.0-run total, so you'll want salary for some of those bats, too.
Charlie Morton can help you thread that needle.
Listed at only the ninth-highest salary, Morton has shown top-shelf upside this year as well as a good floor. Over his last 10 starts, he's scored at least 34 FanDuel points eight times, and he's posted four outings this season of at least 52 FanDuel points. He sports a 3.58 SIERA and 28.2% strikeout rate for the campaign.
Morton -- the owner of a sparkling 3.27 xFIP in the second half -- is taking on the Philadelphia Phillies. While Philly is a solid offense, they're showing an attackable 3.81 implied total, and we project Morton for 36.2 FanDuel points, ranking him as the top overall point-per-dollar pitcher.
Miguel Sano, 1B, Twins
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
Miguel Sano is usually worth a look against a lefty, and that's especially true when he's only $2,600.
Sano will be up against Tyler Alexander, a southpaw who has surrendered a .349 wOBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate, and 45.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. He's also punching out just 18.4% of righties. That makes him a great matchup for Sano.
With the platoon advantage in 2021, Sano has mashed his way to a 46.4% hard-hit rate, and we slot him as the slate's second-best point-per-dollar bat.
DJ Peters, OF, Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $2,200
The Texas Rangers are facing Packy Naughton. A lefty, Naughton has a lowly 12.6% strikeout rate in his brief MLB career (20 2/3 innings), and he posted a blah 21.7% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings this year at Triple-A.
DJ Peters has a 44.0% fly-ball rate against lefties this year and has popped a respectable three homers in 88 plate appearances in the split.
Our model projects Peters for 13.5 FanDuel points and rates him as the top point-per-dollar hitter as of early Tuesday.
Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $2,900
Garrett Hampson is projected to hit second and will have the platoon advantage at Coors versus Patrick Corbin.
Righties are crushing Corbin this year to the tune of a .388 wOBA while striking out just 16.8% of the time. Yes, please.
Hampson owns a .357 wOBA against southpaws, and he's a low-salary way to get exposure to a Colorado Rockies lineup that boasts a slate-leading 6.40 implied total. Add in Hampson being eligible at two positions, and he'll likely be a go-to target for the masses. He might be chalk you just have to swallow if you're stacking Coors.
