3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 9/29/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Shohei Ohtani To Hit a Home Run (+320)
It's fair to say Shohei Ohtani is cold right now, but he still has a great matchup tonight.
Ohtani comes in with only a single home run in his last 15 games, but this is a great spot for him to add one more to his impressive season total. Despite some recent struggles, he comes in with a 153 wRC+, .370 ISO, 38.8% fly-ball rate, 43.5% hard-contact rate, and 36.2% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. The lefty-lefty matchup doesn't matter to Ohtani, and he has plenty of power in this split.
He will be up against Taylor Hearn, who is allowing 1.42 HR/9, a 44.2% fly-ball rate, and a 14.7% HR/FB rate versus lefties this season. This is a pretty simple matchup: Ohtani is a better hitter than Hearn is a pitcher.
Michael Pineda Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Michael Pineda simply isn't a big strikeout pitcher.
Pineda comes in with a 19.2% strikeout rate this season, which is the lowest of his entire career. That low rate has been noticeable as of late with Pineda posting three strikeouts or fewer in 8 of his last 10 starts. His strikeout prop is sitting at 4.5 and has a bit of juice on it, but it's clear Pineda isn't pushing towards the upper end of that too often.
He does have a softer matchup against the Detroit Tigers, but there is nothing to suggest from Pineda that he will be able to exceed his prop. Over those last 10 starts, we've seen him post a strikeout rate lower than 20% seven times, meaning his strikeout rate has actually been decreasing as the season is coming to a close.
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+300)
Franmil Reyes has a ton of power to cash in on his home run prop tonight.
Reyes is a player I've frequently looked towards for a home run prop because he has plenty of power in most matchups. Tonight, he'll be up against Daniel Lynch, who is allowing 1.46 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a rough 5.51 xFIP, 10.5% walk rate, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 35.9% hard-contact rate. Lynch has struggled in his first year in the Majors and a lot of it has to do with home runs.
We turn to Reyes, who has a 132 wRC+, .264 ISO, 41.5% fly-ball rate, 40.2% hard-contact rate, and 26.5% HR/FB rate versus lefties this season. When Reyes is able to get the ball in the air in this split, it's going for a home run a good amount of the time.
