4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 9/29/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. These low-salary picks sometimes being the difference between a good lineup and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique to MLB DFS.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Red Sox
FanDuel Salary: $8.600
The main slate is loaded with pitching options on Wednesday to a point where Nathan Eovaldi is a value play.
Part of that may be getting shelled by the Yankees in his last start, but up until that blowup, Eovaldi was tremendous. The Red Sox ace had eight straight starts with at least six strikeouts and fewer than three runs allowed. The expectation is that he should fare much closer to that against Baltimore.
The Orioles have just a 96 wRC+ against righties since the All-Star break, and their 25.1% strikeout rate is the fifth-worst mark in baseball during that time frame. Eovaldi has a 29.2% strikeout rate in that same period, so the upside appears to be there to hang 50 FanDuel points -- which is the realistic ask to win a tournament with Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole on the slate.
The Red Sox are -260 moneyline favorites because their offense has a favorable matchup against Zac Lowther, as well, which also helps boost Eovaldi's overall floor.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $2,900
What happens when bad pitching meets bad offense? It's always a mystery.
The Rangers and Angels face off on Wednesday as struggling offenses facing Janson Junk and Taylor Hearn. September baseball can be brutal. The overall lineups might be too poor to stack, but there are serviceable one-offs in this contest, and Nathaniel Lowe is one of them.
Lowe has a .334 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and a .172 isolated power (ISO) against righties since the start of August, and Junk profiles as one we can target. Lefties have a .431 wOBA and a 39.1% hard-hit rate against Junk in his limited time with the Angels.
DJ Peters ($2,200) is an option, as well, but the best bet appears to be to stick with platoon-advantaged veteran Lowe.
Jack Mayfield, SS, Angels
FanDuel Salary: $2,400
While it may be particularly difficult tonight to get to Shohei Ohtani ($4,300), there is an Angels alternative in the bargain bin.
Jack Mayfield has had a surprising run against left-handed pitching late this season, and it has gotten him rewarded with projected cleanup duty in Wednesday's contest. Mayfield's batting position, though, matters less than his stellar .324 wOBA and .216 ISO versus southpaws since the trading deadline.
The Angels' struggling offense has Taylor Hearn's salary far higher than his results warrant. Hearn has four straight starts with at least three earned runs allowed and fewer than four strikeouts. His peripherals back up the mediocre results, as his 5.16 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), 35.6% hard-hit rate, and 44.0% flyball rate indicate he just simply is giving up too much high-impact contact that leads to runs.
Mayfield is an option regardless of the batting order, but arguably the best spot in the lineup only boosts the value from his $2,400 salary.
Yu Chang, 3B, Indians
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
The Indians -- and soon-to-be Guardians -- may have their best-remaining matchup of the season tonight against Daniel Lynch.
In three full starts in September, the Royals lefty has ceded at least four runs. That likely will not improve with his 6.73 xFIP and 52.7% flyball rate in the same period. Lynch has always been a stacking target with just an 18.0% strikeout rate, but now the ability to limit flyballs and hard contact is fading as the regular season comes to a close.
Yu Chang is absolutely torching lefties to the point that he may even be worth prioritizing over Jose Ramirez ($4,400), as the two share the same listed position on FanDuel. Chang has a .530 wOBA, .450 ISO, and 38.7% hard-hit rate against lefties since the trading deadline, and that is in a growing 43-plate appearance sample.
There are several quality bats, including Harold Ramirez ($2,400), to facilitate an Indians stack this evening, but Chang appears to be the crown jewel amongst them.
