3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 9/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide -- and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds -- here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Note: Betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kris Bryant To Hit a Home Run (+380)
With a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, the San Francisco Giants could be in for multiple home runs tonight.
Bumgarner, the former Giants' great, is far removed from the pitcher he once was and is a solid option to attack. This season, Bumgarner is allowing 1.41 HR/9, a 5.09 xFIP, a 46.4% fly-ball rate, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. This is the ideal type of pitcher to attack for home run upside.
Kris Bryant has very clear home run potential in this matchup with his 45.3% fly-ball rate, 42.1% hard-contact rate, and a .262 ISO versus lefties. This is as ideal of a pairing as we could possibly find tonight, and it all points to plenty of home run upside for Bryant.
Nick Piveta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+126)
The Boston Red Sox need a big performance from Nick Pivetta tonight.
The Sox are in the Wild Card hunt right now, and a solid outing from Pivetta is fully on the table tonight with his soft matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. Pivetta's strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 -- with plus money on the over. He comes in with a solid 26.0% strikeout rate this season and has pushed it even higher in some games since the All-Star break. Pivetta has posted a 33.3% strikeout rate or higher in three of his starts since the break, showing he has a clear path to the necessary upside.
The Orioles comes in with a 25.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league. With the plus money on the over and the soft matchup, Pivetta's prop is one of the best on the slate.
Trae Turner To Record 2+ Hits (+185)
Trea Turner is one of the best hitters in the MLB, and we want to look at one of hitting prop for value tonight.
Turner to get multiple hits has solid, plus money inside one of the best matchups you can ask for. He will be going up against Vincent Velasquez, who is allowing a .336 wOBA, a 5.06 xFIP, and a .257 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. Velasquez has been a pitcher we've attacked for many seasons, and he has given no reason to stop now.
Turner has a 121 wRC+, a .353 wOBA, a lower 19.2% strikeout rate, and a .347 BABIP versus righties this season. He has 6 multi-hit games over his last 10 outings and is primed for another one against a struggling pitcher.
