MLB Wild Card Betting Guide: Yankees at Red Sox

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Boston Moneyline (+108): 1-Star Rating out of 5

Everything points to this being a tight matchup between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, two teams that finished with identical 92-70 records. Our model and oddsmakers both have it close.

Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi are expected to start. Both hurlers have been really good this year, and they're going to be very familiar with the opposition. This will be Cole's fourth start against Boston this year while it'll be Eovaldi's fifth time taking on the Yankees.

For the year, Cole owns a 33.5% strikeout rate and 2.93 SIERA. He's been excellent overall, but he hasn't been at his best of late. He posted a 3.34 xFIP in September, which was his second-worst monthly clip this year, and he allowed a .351 wOBA for the month -- by far his worst single-month mark of the campaign. Across his final three starts (17 2/3 innings), Cole was tagged for 15 earned runs, including an outing at Boston when he surrendered three runs in six innings.

Eovaldi sports a 25.5% strikeout rate and 3.60 SIERA, so he's definitely a notch or two below Cole in terms of season-long numbers. He does, however, enter the postseason in great form. Eovaldi recorded a 29.9% strikeout rate and 3.16 xFIP in September -- both of which were his top single-month marks for the season. Of course, because it's never easy, Eovaldi's worst recent outing was when the Yanks mauled him for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings on September 24th, Eovaldi's penultimate start of the regular season.

Offensively, the edge lies with Boston. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox have a .347 wOBA while New York carries a .318 wOBA. The Pinstripes have been heavily reliant on the long ball in that time, popping 50 jacks compared to Boston's 37.

Almost anything can happen in a game of baseball, so this promises to be an entertaining night. While you can make an argument for either side, our numbers point to a sliver of value on the Red Sox, who are listed at +108 on the moneyline. We project Boston to win 52.0% of the time and rate taking them to win outright as a one-star bet.