MLB Divisional Round Betting Guide: Dodgers at Giants, Game 5
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (-116): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
It ends tonight.
All year, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have battled -- first for NL West supremacy and then in this NLDS -- and it all comes down to tonight's Game 5.
LA is sending Julio Urias to the mound, and Logan Webb will get the nod for San Francisco. While we're projecting a tight affair and anything can happen in one game of baseball, our model points to some betting value on the Giants.
Webb is a big reason to be into San Fran. He finished the regular season with a 3.13 SIERA and 26.5% strikeout rate, and he dealt on the Dodgers in Game 1, going 7 2/3 scoreless innings while punching out 10. He's now surrendered two earned runs or fewer in all four of his 2021 starts against the Dodgers, limiting LA to four total earned runs and striking out 27 in 23 2/3 innings.
Urias is a really good pitcher, too, and he also had a career-best season. The southpaw ended 2021 with a 3.64 SIERA and 26.2% strikeout rate. He fanned five in five innings of one-run ball in Game 2 en route to getting the win. He did, however, perform worse in the second half (4.08 xFIP and 24.7% strikeout rate) than he did in the first half (3.46 xFIP and 27.7% strikeout rate).
In addition to the two quality starting pitchers, both offenses are excellent, as well, ranking inside the top seven in season-long wOBA. That's why these two teams are the two best squads left, according to our numbers. Counting the postseason, they've each won 109 games. They're good at everything.
We think runs will be at a premium tonight and project the Giants to win by a score of 3.85-3.45. We give San Fran win odds of 56.5%. Their implied win odds at a -116 moneyline are 53.7%, so there is a little value on taking the Giants to win outright.
