MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 10/19/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Braves Moneyline (+152): 1-Star Bet Out of 5
Under 7.5 (-115): 1-Star Bet Out of 5
Our model sees next to no value on tonight's Houston Astros-Boston Red Sox game, so let's break down Game 3 between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The first two games have gone to Atlanta, and now they will give the ball to Charlie Morton, who may be their best pitcher. The Dodgers are countering with Walker Buehler. It's a superb pitching matchup, and the over/under of 7.5 tells you as much.
There's no doubt who the better team was between these two in the regular season -- it was the Dodgers. LA won 18 more games and had a run differential that was 135 runs better. But that doesn't mean a whole lot in the small-sample chaos that is the MLB postseason, and we saw as much in the first two games as the Braves won both by one run.
If Atlanta is going to win Game 3, they'll have to solve Buehler, one of the game's elite hurlers. While Buehler was his usual excellent self in the regular season (3.73 SIERA and 26.0% strikeout rate), he hasn't been quite as lethal through 10 2/3 frames in these playoffs, recording a 20.9% strikeout rate. Of course, we're talking about just 10 2/3 innings against a really good San Francisco Giants offense, so we can't get carried away, but if you're looking to back the Braves tonight, it's at least a little comforting to know that Buehler isn't currently in top form.
Also, the Dodgers' offense isn't clicking, either, as they are averaging just 3.37 runs per game through eight playoff contests (counting the Wild Card Round). They've been held to three runs or fewer in five of those games.
The best thing the Braves have going for them in this one is Morton. The veteran righty turned in another good campaign, finishing 2021 with a 3.53 SIERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. He's been locked in this postseason, recording a 2.27 SIERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 9 1/3 innings. In two regular-season starts against LA, Morton permitted 3 earned runs while punching out 13 in 11 innings.
Our model projects this to be a 3.61-3.23 win for the Dodgers in a low-scoring game. That points to some value on Atlanta and the under. We have the Braves winning 44.1% of the time, but at a moneyline price of +152, their implied win odds are just 39.7%. With the total, we project the under to win out at a rate of 56.4%.
