MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/8/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies
Oakland Moneyline (+158): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Oakland +1.5 (-140): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Oakland Athletics Friday afternoon in what is the opener for each side. Our model sees this as a dead heat, which creates value on the underdog A's.
Philly is giving the ball to Aaron Nola. While Nola's 3.26 SIERA from last year tells us he pitched much better than his 4.63 ERA indicates, Nola has permitted at least 1.14 dingers per nine for three consecutive years. Hopefully, the Athletics' offense can run into a couple taters, because this projects to be a pretty blah lineup.
But as we saw with most every starting hurler yesterday, Nola is likely to be on a short leash as he went only 70 pitches in his last spring training outing. That should give Oakland a few frames against a Phillies 'pen that was right around league-average in most metrics in 2021.
Oakland is turning to Frankie Montas, a righty who twirled a 3.79 SIERA and 26.6% strikeout rate a year ago. In addition to getting whiffs, Montas allowed just a 30.4% hard-hit rate and 35.2 fly-ball rate. He checks a lot of boxes, although he'll have his hands full with a Philly lineup that should be a good one.
In all, our model has this game projected at 4.22-4.22. With Oakland at +158 on the moneyline, our model rates taking the A's to win -- something we project to happen 47.6% of the time -- as a two-star bet. And we have Oakland covering as 1.5-run 'dogs 65.0% of the time.
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Moneyline (-180): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Toronto -1.5 (+115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
There are a lot of reasons to like futures bets on the Toronto Blue Jays in 2022, and our model absolutely loves them in their opener Friday against the Texas Rangers.
The pitching matchup pits Jon Gray against Jose Berrios.
Berrios was excellent in 2021, amassing a 3.65 SIERA and 26.1% strikeout rate -- both of which were career-best marks. He pitched to a 3.48 SIERA and 26.8% strikeout rate in 70 1/3 innings after being dealt to the Jays. The Rangers made some moves this offseason to bolster their squad, and while they should be better offensively than they were a year ago, FanGraphs' projections still rate the Rangers' offense as a below-average unit.
Gray finally escapes Coors Field this year, but he draws a brutal opening matchup. The Blue Jays project as the game's third-best offense, and it's a lineup that is pretty dang stout from top to bottom. Toronto ended 2021 with the second-lowest strikeout rate (20.1%) and the top-ranked wOBA (.340). At home last season, Toronto had the second-best wOBA (.350) and hit the second-most jacks.
Our algorithm projects Toronto to win 5.66-3.44. That creates value in taking the Jays on the runline and moneyline -- both of which we rate as three-star bets. The -180 moneyline implies win odds of 64.3%, but we project the Blue Jays to win 74.5% of the time. We also give Toronto a 58.1% chance to cover the runline, and you can get that at +115 odds.
