MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/12/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Over 9.0 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
In their home opener on Tuesday afternoon, Chicago White Sox host the Seattle Mariners, and we should be in for some fireworks.
The pitching matchup gives us Vincent Velasquez against Matt Brash.
Velasquez has long been as volatile as they come, flashing swing-and-miss upside when he's on but struggling with walks and fly-balls. He was on brand in 2021. Over 94 1/3 innings, VV amassed an appealing 24.2% strikeout rate but also had an 11.8% walk rate while allowing a 46.5% fly-ball rate -- which led to an ugly 2.19 homers per nine. It all added up to a 4.72 SIERA.
Facing a Seattle lineup that was solid last year and improved over the offseason, Velasquez will likely be in trouble today, and we forecast the Mariners to score 5.08 runs.
Brash has a tough task in front of him, as well, in what is his MLB debut. His minor-league numbers definitely check out as he recorded a 36.0% strikeout rate in Double-A in 2021. But he's never pitched above that level, and he's matched up with a Chicago offense that finished fifth in wOBA last year (.329). Chicago's wOBA jumped to .342 at home, and we project them to push across 5.44 runs.
In all, our model has 10.52 runs being scored in this one. We project the over to win out 56.5% of the time.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The San Francisco Giants are slim home favorites over the San Diego Padres. We think they should be bigger favorites.
Both teams have quality arms on the bump. San Diego is turning to Yu Darvish while Alex Cobb gets the ball for San Fran.
Cobb was really good last year for the Los Angeles Angels, spinning his way to a 3.83 SIERA and 24.9% strikeout rate while generating a sparkling 53.3% ground-ball rate.
Darvish is obviously very good, too. In what felt like a down year for him a campaign ago, he still posted a 3.49 SIERA and 29.2% strikeout rate. But a reason to back San Francisco tonight -- in addition to Cobb's 2021 numbers -- is the Giants' superb offense. They finished last season with the fifth-best wOBA against righties (.332), and they had the eighth-best home wOBA (.334).
We project San Fran to win by a score of 4.35-3.86, and we give the Giants win odds of 57.8%. The -106 moneyline implies win odds of only 51.5%, creating value in taking the Giants on the moneyline.
