3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 4/13/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Adam Duvall To Hit a Home Run (+315)
Adam Duvall has some serious home run potential and a great matchup to put that on display.
Last season, Duvall had a 117 wRC+, .292 ISO, massive 51.7% fly-ball rate, and 36.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He was a bit of a reverse splits hitter, being better against righty pitchers compared to lefties. The fly-ball rate being that high is great to see and makes him a threat on any given day to hit a home run.
Today, he's up against Josiah Gray, who had a 4.60 xFIP, 54.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.7% hard-contact rate against right-handed hitters last season, which led to him allowing 2.33 HR/9.
The Atlanta Braves are sporting a slate-high 5.17 implied run total, and it won't be a surprise to see that come via home runs today.
Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
While Framber Valdez is a good pitcher, we want to look towards the under on his strikeout prop today. Valdez's prop is sitting at 5.5 versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I'm going with the under on this one.
He will be going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who may not be a great team, but they don't strike out a ton versus left-handed pitchers. Last season, their active roster had a 19.6% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which was the third-best in the league. They may not have a ton of power potential, but they are very disciplined at the plate and don't throw away at-bats.
We combine that with the fact Valdez had a low 21.9% strikeout rate last season, and it's pointing to the under 5.5 strikeouts today.
Freddie Freeman 2+ Total Bases (-120)
Freddie Freeman is off to a good but not great start for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season.
The new contract, the new team, the change of scenery -- whatever it might be -- Freeman is looking just okay right now.
Yes, I know it's only four games, and in reality, I'm not worried about Freeman. He's consistently been one of the best hitters in the league, and today's matchup is a spot for him to get things going.
He will be taking on Chris Paddack, who had a 3.96 xFIP, low 20.3% strikeout rate, and 36.8% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters last year. He isn't too much of a threat on the mound, and with the Dodgers carrying a 4.72 implied run total, they are projected to score plenty of runs.
Freeman is hitting in the two-hole for the Dodgers today and should be firmly involved in their offense if they are going to hit or exceed that implied run total. Last year, Freeman carried a 148 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
