MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 5/4/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies -1.5 (+125): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model projects the Philadelphia Phillies to top the Texas Rangers by a comfortable margin, creating value in taking Philly on the runline.
Philadelphia should have a huge advantage on the mound as they have Zack Wheeler going against Martin Perez.
Wheeler has definitely stumbled out of the gates in 2022, sporting a meager 21.4% strikeout rate and 8.2% swinging-strike rate. There are legit reasons to be concerned, too, as his average fastball velocity is down 1.8 MPH compared to last year.
But with all that said, he's still got a 3.98 SIERA due in large part to an excellent 16.4% hard-hit rate, and Wheeler had a 29.1% strikeout rate last year over a much larger sample (213 1/3 frames). Facing a Texas offense that is 22nd in wOBA, Wheeler should have success today.
Perez is sort of the opposite of Wheeler. He's been a meh lefty for a while, but he's off to a good start this season, holding a 3.52 SIERA. But we're likely looking at some small-sample noise with Martin's fast start, and he's still punching out only 19.3% of hitters during this good stretch. Perez also gave up 1.50 dingers per nine last year, something that isn't going to help him at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
We project Philly to win by a score of 5.09-3.61, and we think they cover the runline 51.1% of the time. You can get it at an appealing price of +125, and we rate it as a two-star bet.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays Moneyline (+122): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The New York Yankees just keep winning, and they'll have a red-hot Nestor Cortes on the bump tonight. But our model sees value in the Toronto Blue Jays.
While Cortes has been a breakout star early on this year, pitching to a 1.94 SIERA and 35.9% strikeout rate, it's fair to question whether he can maintain this level of production. Cortes' swinging-strike rate is only 9.6%, which hints at impending negative regression for his strikeout rate, and he's also given up just one tater in 20 2/3 innings despite allowing a 42.6% fly-ball rate. His current homer-to-fly-ball rate is 5.0% -- much lower than his career clip of 15.6%.
Let me be clear, though -- Cortes is good. He's just probably not this good. And facing a lineup with potent right-handed bats such as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel, Cortes has his work cut out for him tonight.
Toronto is turning to Yusei Kikuchi. In his first year with the Jays, Kikuchi has stunk so far, posting an 18.1% walk rate that is identical to his 18.1% strikeout rate. Yikes. But Kikuchi was much better last season over a sample of 157 innings, registering a 24.5% strikeout rate and 4.16 SIERA.
Overall these two teams are about even. On offense, the Jays project ever-so-slightly better the rest of the way, per FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections, and their bullpens have nearly the same SIERAs so far.
We think tonight will be a tight game, but we give the underdog Jays a 54.0% chance to win. With Toronto listed at +122 on the moneyline, taking the Blue Jays to win outright is a two-star play, per our model.
