MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 5/5/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Over 8.0 (-108): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Chris Archer and Spenser Watkins are starting on the mound in this game, and the total is just too low, per our model.
Watkins has struggled mightily since debuting last year. In 72 1/3 career innings, he owns a 13.0% strikeout rate and 5.40 SIERA, and he's been mauled for 1.99 homers per nine. Our projections have the Minnesota Twins' offense producing 5.54 runs.
If the Twins' offense does most of the heavy lifting, the Baltimore Orioles' offense won't need to do too much to get us to the over. But we project them to fare pretty well versus Archer, forecasting the O's to plate 4.63 runs.
Archer has a 4.52 SIERA and 51.5% fly-ball rate since the start of 2021. He's permitted 1.81 jacks per nine across 154 1/3 frames since the start of 2020. He's just not very good anymore.
In all, we project a total of 10.17 runs to be scored in this game -- well over the 8.0-run total. We think the over wins out 64.1% of the time and mark this as a four-star bet.
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (-132): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants -1.5 (+158): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The San Francisco Giants are priced as favorites tonight versus the St. Louis Cardinals -- just not big enough favorites, according to our numbers.
The Giants are sending Logan Webb to the bump. While Webb has been a little slow out of the gates after his breakout 2021 season, he's still the owner of a top-notch 3.31 SIERA and 61.1% ground-ball rate through his first 30 1/3 innings of this campaign. He shouldn't be too bothered by a Cards offense that is next to last in hard-hit rate (25.5%).
Miles Mikolas is taking the ball for St. Louis. Mikolas has been really good thus far in 2022, pitching to a 3.31 SIERA. But his swinging-strike rate is only 7.6%, and he's being aided by a .229 BABIP. In his two seasons prior to this one, Mikolas recorded a 4.42 SIERA, and he'll likely have a hard time maintaining his current form.
We really like the Giants tonight. Our algorithm projects them to win by a score of 4.92-3.44. We have San Fran winning 67.8% of the time, which is a much higher number than the 56.9% win odds their -132 moneyline implies. You can also roll the dice on the Giants to cover on the runline. We project them to cover 51.0% of the time, and you can get it at +158.
