3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/10/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+320)
Pete Alonso is an elite home run hitter with a great matchup tonight. Alonso has been one of the best home run hitters in the league for a few seasons, and any time we can look to him for a home run prop, we should be doing so.
He's going up against Patrick Corbin, who ended last season with a 4.66 xFIP, allowing 2.40 HR/9, a 33.3% fly-ball rate, a 36.8% hard-contact rate, and a 24.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters last season. He's a home run-prone pitcher, and we should be attacking him with righties whenever he is on the slate.
Last season, Alonso had a 137 wRC+, .325 ISO, big 51.6% fly-ball rate, and 33.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. This is about as ideal of a spot we could think of for Alonso, putting him at the top of the list today.
Mike Zunino To Hit a Home Run (+385)
When we look at the Tampa Bay Rays for power, we go to Mike Zunino.
Zunino is a really interesting hitter because he is legitimately only an option when he is facing a left-handed pitcher as he is tonight. We saw that on full display last year with him ending with a 242 wRC+, .526 ISO, 61.5% fly-ball rate, and 41.0% hard-contact rate in the split. Those are elite numbers and puts him in a spot to hit a home run when the matchup presents itself, which is what we have against Reid Detmers.
Detmers only has 22.0 innings pitched this season and 20.2 innings last year, which was his first in the MLB. So, we'll look to his career numbers where he has allowed a 4.47 xFIP, 1.72 HR/9, 45.1% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard=-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
This is the spot to look for a home run from Zunino with his power against lefties.
Justin Verlander Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116)
With a strong start to the season, Justin Verlander is a solid option for a strikeout prop tonight.
Verlander comes in with a 26.3% strikeout rate this season while posting seven strikeouts or more in three of his five starts. His matchup is against the Minnesota Twins, who come in with a 23.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 11th worst in the league.
Even though Verlander has come back from an injury last season, there are no concerns about him going deeper into games, as he has posted 91 and 101 pitches in his last two starts. The soft matchup plus his consistency should allow him to hit the over on 6.5 strikeouts. Also, be looking to his alt strikeout line of 8+ at +168.
