3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 5/11/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+350)
The St. Louis Cardinals have a great matchup to get their offense going tonight.
With a 4.99 implied run total, the Cardinals lead the slate and have a great matchup versus Spenser Watkins to surpass that total. Throughout his major league career -- this season and last -- Watkins is allowing a .440 wOBA, 6.32 xFIP, 2.70 HR/9, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 39.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. It's a total of 77.0 innings for the two seasons, so you can take it with a grain of salt, but there's no indication that Watkins is a pitcher you need to shy away from.
Tyler O'Neill is off to a bit of a slower start this season with a 51 wRC+, .133 ISO, and a 25.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. However, he was significantly better last year with a 139 wRC+, .258 ISO, and 42.0% hard-contact rate.
While his start this season hasn't been amazing, O'Neill's history versus right-handed pitchers is worth betting on tonight.
Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Shane McClanahan has plenty of strikeout potential and a prop worth considering tonight.
McClanahan's strikeout rate is sitting at 36.7% this season, which is the second-best in the entire league behind only Carlos Rodon. We see his prop sitting at 6.5 strikeouts, and I'm going with the over tonight. He's going up against the Los Angeles Angels, who come in with a 23.8% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the 12th worst in the league.
The lefty comes in with seven strikeouts or more in five of his six starts this season, making him one of the most consistent pitchers in the league. If he can limit the damage and be efficient with his pitch count, he should be able to hit the over easily.
Due to that potential, I also have an interest in 8+ strikeouts at +172 and a little sprinkle on 9+ strikeouts at +330.
Pete Alonso To Record an RBI (+100)
The New York Mets have a solid 4.73 implied run total, and we want to look for some player props from their lineup. Aaron Sanchez is on the hill for the Washington Nationals tonight, and it puts the Mets' right-handed hitters in a great spot.
We turn to Pete Alonso, who didn't hit a home run yesterday for us, so we're going back to the well tonight. This season against right-handed hitters, Sanchez has a .467 wOBA, 4.73 xFIP, and a low 9.4% strikeout rate, and he allows 1.35 HR/9. With numbers like those, it won't be a surprise to see the Mets blow past that implied run total.
Alonso comes in with a 161 wRC+, a .242 ISO, a low 20.6% strikeout rate, and a 44.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's a great matchup for a great hitter with plus money on his RBI prop.
