3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/13/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+245)
Tonight's MLB slate is loaded with great home run options, and Byron Buxton is near the top of the list.
With so many great options tonight, it's tough to pick only one player for a home run. I'm settling on Buxton, but Yordan Alvarez (+275), Pete Alonso (+245), and Aaron Judge (+235) are all fantastic options. I'll have some exposure to them as well but Buxton is my top pick tonight.
Buxton is off to a great start this season with a 100 wRC+, a .225 ISO, a 43.8% fly-ball rate, and a 31.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. That power should be on full display tonight versus Aaron Civale, who is allowing a .480wOBA, a 6.11 xFIP, 2.61 HR/9, and a 51.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. The Minnesota Twins are sporting a 4.68 implied run total, and with a matchup like this, they could easily surpass that.
Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Kevin Gausman is one of the best pitchers in the league and we're looking to the over on his strikeout prop.
That total is set at 7.5 tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays, and I'm going with the over. Gausman is carrying an elite 31.3% strikeout rate this season, which is the seventh-best in the entire league. Although he only posted five strikeouts in his most recent start, he racked up eight strikeouts or more in the four starts prior to that, showing he has high upside.
He's going up against the Rays, presenting the absolute ideal matchup for him. The Rays have a 25.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is dead last in the league. That's right. The worst team against righty pitchers is going up against an elite strikeout arm in Gausman.
With that said, I also have some interest in Gausman recording nine or more strikeouts at +215. I also don't think it's crazy to consider Gausman 10-plus strikeouts at +400.
C.J. Cron To Record an RBI (-110)
The Colorado Rockies are back at home and have a big 5.58 implied run total tonight.
It's no surprise that we want to find some hitter's props for a game at Coors Field that has a slate-high 10.5 over/under. We turn right to the middle of the Rockies' order for C.J. Cron to record an RBI at -110. He comes in with a 145 wRC+, a .400 wOBA, a .282 ISO, a 38.7% hard-contact rate, and a 27.3% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers this season.
The power upside is clearly there and ultimately, he can cash in on this prop with one swing of the bat.
He will be going up against Zack Greinke, who is allowing a 4.89 xFIP, a .335 wOBA, and a 47.8% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season.
The Rockies are going to score some runs tonight, and I want some exposure to their offense. It's really that simple. I will also add Cron to record two or more RBIs is +340; that's also worth a shot.
