MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 5/19/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 9.5 | 5.05 | 39.3% | 24.5% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 8.0 | 4.64 | 32.1% | 18.7% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| HOU | Glenn Otto | 8.0 | 4.62 | 31.8% | 18.5% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| BOS | George Kirby | 8.5 | 4.45 | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| KC | Vince Velasquez | 9.5 | 4.45 | 28.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| CLE | Tyler Mahle | 8.0 | 4.22 | 25.0% | 13.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| PHI | Yu Darvish | 8.0 | 4.10 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| SEA | Rich Hill | 8.5 | 4.05 | 22.3% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| ARI | Marcus Stroman | 8.0 | 4.02 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| CHC | Zac Gallen | 8.0 | 3.98 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| NYM | Dakota Hudson | 7.0 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| SD | Kyle Gibson | 8.0 | 3.90 | 19.9% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| CIN | Cal Quantrill | 8.0 | 3.78 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| TEX | Framber Valdez | 8.0 | 3.38 | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 8.0 | 3.36 | 12.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| STL | Chris Bassitt | 7.0 | 3.09 | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | STL | 6.1 | 85.8% | 72.9% | 57.2% | 41.1% | 27.1% | 16.4% | 9.2% |
| Tyler Mahle | CLE | 5.9 | 83.5% | 69.4% | 53.0% | 37.0% | 23.6% | 13.8% | 7.4% |
| Framber Valdez | TEX | 5.8 | 82.7% | 68.3% | 51.7% | 35.7% | 22.5% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
| Yu Darvish | PHI | 5.7 | 82.2% | 67.6% | 50.8% | 34.9% | 21.8% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Zac Gallen | CHC | 5.4 | 78.6% | 62.5% | 45.2% | 29.7% | 17.7% | 9.7% | 4.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | BAL | 5.1 | 75.1% | 58.0% | 40.5% | 25.6% | 14.6% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | SD | 4.9 | 72.5% | 54.7% | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Cal Quantrill | CIN | 4.9 | 72.5% | 54.7% | 37.2% | 22.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Vince Velasquez | KC | 4.8 | 70.1% | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Rich Hill | SEA | 4.6 | 67.8% | 49.1% | 31.8% | 18.5% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Carlos Hernandez | CHW | 4.3 | 62.1% | 42.8% | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Glenn Otto | HOU | 4.0 | 56.7% | 37.1% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Bruce Zimmermann | NYY | 3.7 | 51.0% | 31.7% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Dakota Hudson | NYM | 3.6 | 48.7% | 29.5% | 15.7% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| George Kirby | BOS | 3.5 | 46.8% | 27.8% | 14.5% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Marcus Stroman | ARI | 3.1 | 36.8% | 19.7% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.
| Batter | Team | Opp Pitcher |
Proj HR |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.39 | 25.6% | +291 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.37 | 24.7% | +304 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | George Kirby | 0.35 | 23.8% | +319 |
| Jordan Luplow | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.33 | 22.9% | +336 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.31 | 21.9% | +356 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.30 | 21.4% | +367 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | George Kirby | 0.28 | 20.4% | +391 |
| Jose Altuve | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.28 | 20.4% | +391 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.28 | 20.4% | +391 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Manny Machado | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.25 | 18.7% | +434 |
| Yasmani Grandal | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.24 | 18.2% | +451 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.24 | 18.2% | +451 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Luis Torrens | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Kyle Tucker | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Gavin Sheets | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| Chas McCormick | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.22 | 17.0% | +490 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.21 | 16.3% | +512 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | George Kirby | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Brandon Drury | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| Luke Voit | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.19 | 15.1% | +564 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Colin Moran | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Tyler Stephenson | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.18 | 14.4% | +594 |
| Jean Segura | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.17 | 13.7% | +628 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Ty France | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Jake Hager | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.16 | 13.1% | +666 |
| Carlos Santana | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Mike Moustakas | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Alex Bregman | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | George Kirby | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Dylan Moore | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | George Kirby | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Odubel Herrera | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Owen Miller | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.14 | 11.6% | +759 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Michael Brantley | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | George Kirby | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Tommy Pham | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Bryson Stott | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.13 | 10.9% | +816 |
| Martin Maldonado | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Chris Owings | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Pavin Smith | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Alfonso Rivas | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Jeremy Pena | HOU | Glenn Otto | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.12 | 10.2% | +883 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Tyler Naquin | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Harrison Bader | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Oscar Mercado | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Josh Rojas | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Tyler Nevin | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| TJ Friedl | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.11 | 9.4% | +962 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Robinson Chirinos | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Charlie Culberson | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Leury Garcia | CHW | Carlos Hernandez | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Matt Reynolds | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | George Kirby | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Juan Yepez | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1058 |
| Yadier Molina | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Wil Myers | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Jonathan Villar | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Framber Valdez | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| David Peralta | ARI | Marcus Stroman | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | Vince Velasquez | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Kyle Farmer | CIN | Cal Quantrill | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Dominic Smith | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Kyle Gibson | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Yu Darvish | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.09 | 7.8% | +1174 |
| Rafael Ortega | CHC | Zac Gallen | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Bruce Zimmermann | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Rich Hill | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Myles Straw | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Chris Bassitt | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Richie Palacios | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.08 | 7.0% | +1320 |
| Tomas Nido | NYM | Dakota Hudson | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | Jordan Montgomery | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Tyler Mahle | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1507 |
