MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/24/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Over 8.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Kyle Gibson and Max Fried are the scheduled starters for this one, and our model likes the offenses to win out.
We expect the offense of the Atlanta Braves to do the heavy lifting against Gibson to get us to the over. Atlanta's bats have struggled out of the gates, and they actually have the highest strikeout rate (26.1%) in MLB. But, they also have the top-ranked hard-hit rate (34.1%) and are being bogged down by a .277 BABIP that ranks just 22nd. This attack should produce better numbers the rest of the way, and that's reflected in FanGraphs' rest-of-season projections, which have Atlanta with the second-best offense (4.61 runs per game).
Gibson's 20.8% strikeout rate so far this season is right in line with his 20.6% mark from 2021. He's not the type of pitcher who should be able to massively take advantage of the Braves' swing-and-miss ways. He's also lost 1.3 MPH on his average fastball velocity compared to a year ago, with Gibson averaging only 91.8 MPH on his four-seamer.
Fried is a good pitcher who has a career-best 2.93 SIERA this season. It checks out, too, thanks to an uptick in Fried's swinging-strike rate, which is all the way up at 13.4%. But there might be some small-sample noise at play as we have a long track record of Fried being mostly a meh-strikeout pitcher. Across 221 2/3 frames over 2020 and 2021, the Braves' lefty had a 23.3% strikeout rate and 11.1% swinging-strike rate, so time will tell how real his 2022 gains are.
Today, Fried has a tough draw against a Philadelphia Phillies lineup with stout righty bats such as Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos. Fried allowed seven earned runs over 17 innings against Philly a year ago.
Our algorithm has Atlanta winning by a score of 4.88-4.29. That's 9.17 total runs, and we forecast the over to cash 55.6% of the time, rating it as a three-star wager.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Oakland Moneyline (+132): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Seattle Mariners' star prospect George Kirby -- their starter tonight -- has a pretty dope minor-league statistical profile, but he's struggled early on in his MLB tenure.
Across his first 15 innings -- a small sample, I know -- Kirby has racked up a meager 17.7% strikeout rate. The rookie has also thrown only 71, 89 and 81 pitches in his three starts, so even if Kirby throws well tonight, we should still see a good amount of the Mariners' bullpen.
James Kaprielian is getting the ball for the Oakland Athletics. He amassed a 24.5% strikeout rate and 4.22 SIERA last year over 119 1/3 innings. He has single-game swinging-strike rates of 10.1%, 10.7% and 14.6% over his past three outings -- with the 14.6% clip coming in his most recent start -- so Kaprielian is trending in the right direction. Even though he's got the tougher matchup of the two starters, he can find success on Tuesday.
Our model sees this as close to a coin flip, and that creates value on the A's. We give Oakland a 47.3% chance to win, but their +132 moneyline price implies odds of just 43.1%. Taking the Athletics on the moneyline is a one-star bet.
