3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/26/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
C.J. Cron To Hit a Home Run (+350)/Randal Grichuk To Hit a Home Run (+410)
The Colorado Rockies have a great matchup tonight and several player props worth considering.
A 4.00 implied total is where we see the Rockies tonight, and that seems too low. They are going up against Patrick Corbin, a pitcher we want to target each and every time he is on the slate. This has put several of the Rockies' hitters in a great spot, and since I can't decide between them, I'm going with both C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk's home run props.
This season versus right-handed hitters, Corbin is allowing a .366 wBOA, a .486 SLG, a 4.19 xFIP, 1.56 HR/9, a 35.4% fly-ball rate, and a 41.6% hard-contact rate. He's among the worst pitchers on the slate and is always primed to give up some home runs.
Cron comes in with a 159 wRC+, a .366 ISO, a 37.0% fly-ball rate, and a 40.0% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. Grichuk comes in with a 173 wRC+, a .129 ISO, a 30.4% hard-contact rate, and a 33.3% HR/FB ratio versus lefties. They are both very similar and have great hitting profiles that match up well with Corbin's weaknesses.
Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-148)
Frankie Montas has a great matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.
While I'm not too fond of the -148 juice on this prop, I love the matchup for Montas. He's going up against the Texas Rangers, who come in with a 23.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 11th worst in the league. This presents some upside for Montas, who is carrying a 27.4% strikeout rate this season. That's the highest of his career outside of a very small sample size in his first year.
Montas left his most recent start after only 1.2 innings pitched due to being hit by a ball. All indications point to him being fully ready to go for tonight's game. Montas has posted six-plus strikeouts in six of his eight starts this season -- not including the most recent shortened one.
He's seen spikes of 8 and 12 strikeouts in individual games this season, so I'll look to add his alternate lines of 7+ Strikeouts (+140) and 8+ Strikeouts (+285).
Trevor Story To Record An RBI (+110)
Trevor Story is red hot right now.
If you've been following the MLB over the past week or so, one of the main storylines -- no pun intended -- is that Trevor Story has exploded on offense after a bit of a slow start.
Tonight, he has a fantastic matchup versus Dallas Keuchel to continue his strong offense streak. Keuchel comes in allowing a .368 wOBA, a .462 SLG, a 4.93 xFIP, and 1.48 HR/9.
Story hits in the middle of the Boston Red Sox lineup, who are sporting a 4.50 implied run total today. He comes in with a 155 wRC+, a .386 wOBA, a .345 ISO, and a 62.5% fly-ball rate.
There is plenty of scoring potential for the Red Sox tonight, so I'll also Story to Record 2+ RBIs (+390) as well.
