3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/31/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Marcell Ozuna To Hit a Home Run (+320)
The Atlanta Braves have a great matchup tonight and come in with a strong 4.94 implied run total.
With a powerful offense, the Braves are always a threat to put up plenty of runs, and that is certainly on the table tonight. They are going up against Humberto Castellanos, who has struggled versus right-handed hitters this season.
He's allowed a .356 wOBA, a .463 SLG, a 4.62 xFIP, 1.33 HR/9, a 42.6% fly-ball rate, and a 36.8% hard-contact rate. The list goes on and on for Castellanos -- a pitcher we absolutely want to target with the opposing team's player props.
We can turn to Marcell Ozuna, who comes in with a 101 wRC+, a .230 ISO, a .317 wOBA, a 48.6% fly-ball rate, and a 37.6% hard-contact rate. He's a reverse splits hitter, meaning he's better against right-handed pitchers compared to left-handed pitchers.
Considering how bad Castellanos is against right-handed hitters, you could also consider home run props for Austin Riley (+300) or Ronald Acuna (+245).
Cristian Javier Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Cristian Javier has been dominating as of late, and he can continue that trend tonight.
Javier is now carrying a very strong 33.1% strikeout rate on the season and has a matchup versus the Oakland Athletics that should allow him to hit the over on 6.5 strikeouts.
The Athletics come in with a 24.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the ninth-worst in the league. We've seen Javier post nine strikeouts in back-to-back starts where he held a strikeout rate of 42.9%.
With his strikeout rate increasing in recent starts and a favorable matchup versus the Athletics, over 6.5 strikeouts are the spot to go tonight. I'll also look to add the alternate strikeout lines of 8+ Strikeouts (+175) and 9+ Strikeouts (+330).
Ryan McMahon To Record and RBI (+120)
A game at Coors Field is always a good spot to look for some hitter's props.
The Colorado Rockies have a 5.19 implied run total and -- surprise, surprise -- they are going to be a popular option tonight in betting or daily fantasy.
The Miami Marlins are expected to have Edward Cabrera make his season debut tonight. Last season, he pitched a total of 23.2 innings where he allowed a 5.58 xFIP, a .406 wOBA, a .537 SLG, 2.35 HR/9, and a 37.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
It won't be a surprise to see the Rockies post multiple runs against a pitcher with stats like those.
Ryan McMahon hits in the middle of the Rockies' lineup and comes in with a 115 wRC+, a .197 ISO, a .355 wOBA, and a 36.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's Coors Field, so the game could always get out of hand and see plenty of scoring. Therefore, look to add on McMahon To Record 2+ RBI (+450).
