3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/1/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Boston Red Sox boast a 4.89 implied run total tonight and have an excellent matchup for some home runs.
That 4.89 implied run total is the second-highest on the slate, and with their matchup against Hunter Greene, they could push past that in a hurry. The last two games have been a bit lackluster for the Red Sox offense, scoring a total of one run, but it's baseball, so random outcomes are bound to happen. If we take a look at Greene's numbers, it's clear this is a spot for the Red Sox to get back on track with their offense.
This season, Greene is allowing a .427 wOBA, a .653 SLG, a 4.60 xFIP, 4.24 HR/9, a 54.2% fly-ball rate, and a 38.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. He only has 44.1 innings pitched in the MLB this season but it's clear that he has some serious issues dealing with right-handed power hitters.
J.D. Martinez is having an awesome year but hasn't turned that into a ton of home runs -- yet. He comes in with 175 wRC+, a .215 ISO, a 39.4% hard-contact rate, and a 33.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Martinez has been super consistent all season but has swatted just one home run in his last 15 games.
This is the perfect matchup for him to get the power going.
Jon Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Let's take a look at Jon Gray's strikeout prop, which is sitting at 5.5 tonight.
Gray isn't the best strikeout getter in the league but sits inside a great matchup to push it to his higher-level outcome tonight.
The Rangers' right-hander comes in with a 22.2% strikeout rate this season, along with an 11.3% swinging-strike rate. He's a decent pitcher -- but by no means a great strikeout pitcher. I'm mostly interested in his matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who enter with a 24.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league.
Gray posted a season-high eight strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels, who have a 25.0% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (fourth-worst in the league).
If he's going to have success against the heaviest strikeout teams in the league, this is the time to target his prop.
Freddie Freeman To Record an RBI (+115)
Call it the law of averages. Call it positive regression. Call it whatever you want; the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to bounce back.
The Dodgers have lost two straight games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, of all teams. They are too good of a team with too many great hitters to be worried about, so I'm going back to the well with a Freddie Freeman to record an RBI prop tonight.
Not only are the Dodgers overall due for some more scoring, but Freeman himself needs to start filling up the stat sheet after a few slow games.
Freeman holds just one RBI in his last five games, which is a level we don't often see from such an elite hitter. He comes in with a 159 wRC+, a .167 ISO, a .397 wOBA, and an 11.4% walk rate versus left-handed pitchers overall.
His matchup against Jose Quintana is a modest one. Quintana generally isn't going past the sixth inning, and that is what puts Freeman in a great spot. The Pirates' bullpen comes in with a 4.55 xFIP (27th), a .348 wOBA (29th), and 1.0 HR/9 (12th) allowed to left-handed hitters this season.
As the game goes on, Freeman will be in a better spot to cash in on this prop. I'll also add Freeman to Record 2+ RBI (+400).
