MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/16/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | Matthew Swarmer | 11.0 | 6.09 | 56.9% | 40.8% | 26.9% | 16.2% | 9.0% |
| CLE | Chad Kuhl | 11.5 | 6.04 | 56.1% | 40.0% | 26.2% | 15.7% | 8.7% |
| COL | Triston McKenzie | 11.5 | 5.46 | 46.4% | 30.8% | 18.6% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| BOS | Paul Blackburn | 9.5 | 5.23 | 42.4% | 27.2% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| PHI | Patrick Corbin | 9.0 | 5.14 | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| TOR | Tyler Wells | 8.5 | 5.11 | 40.3% | 25.4% | 14.5% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| CHC | Joe Musgrove | 11.0 | 4.91 | 36.8% | 22.5% | 12.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
| NYY | Jalen Beeks | 8.0 | 4.77 | 34.4% | 20.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| TEX | Beau Brieske | 8.5 | 4.59 | 31.3% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| OAK | Rich Hill | 9.5 | 4.27 | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| NYM | Aaron Ashby | 8.0 | 4.20 | 24.7% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| DET | Martin Perez | 8.5 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| WSH | Zack Wheeler | 9.0 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIL | Tylor Megill | 8.0 | 3.80 | 18.4% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| LAA | George Kirby | 7.0 | 3.57 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| SEA | Shohei Ohtani | 7.0 | 3.43 | 13.3% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| BAL | Kevin Gausman | 8.5 | 3.39 | 12.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| TB | Luis Severino | 8.0 | 3.23 | 10.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | WSH | 6.9 | 91.4% | 82.0% | 68.9% | 53.8% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.1% |
| Joe Musgrove | CHC | 6.6 | 89.2% | 78.2% | 63.8% | 48.1% | 33.5% | 21.4% | 12.7% |
| Luis Severino | TB | 6.5 | 89.1% | 78.1% | 63.7% | 48.0% | 33.3% | 21.3% | 12.6% |
| Shohei Ohtani | SEA | 6.5 | 88.9% | 77.7% | 63.2% | 47.5% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.3 | 87.7% | 75.8% | 60.7% | 44.8% | 30.4% | 19.0% | 10.9% |
| Tylor Megill | MIL | 5.2 | 75.5% | 58.5% | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Aaron Ashby | NYM | 5.2 | 75.5% | 58.5% | 41.0% | 26.0% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Triston McKenzie | COL | 5.1 | 75.1% | 58.0% | 40.5% | 25.6% | 14.6% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
| Patrick Corbin | PHI | 5.0 | 73.2% | 55.6% | 38.1% | 23.5% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 4.5 | 66.4% | 47.5% | 30.4% | 17.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Matthew Swarmer | SD | 4.5 | 66.3% | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Chad Kuhl | CLE | 4.4 | 64.1% | 44.9% | 28.0% | 15.6% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Martin Perez | DET | 4.3 | 63.0% | 43.7% | 27.0% | 14.9% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| George Kirby | LAA | 4.3 | 61.7% | 42.4% | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Beau Brieske | TEX | 4.2 | 59.5% | 40.0% | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Paul Blackburn | BOS | 3.8 | 52.0% | 32.6% | 18.0% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Wells | TOR | 3.4 | 45.0% | 26.3% | 13.5% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jalen Beeks | NYY | 2.6 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | Opp Pitcher |
Proj HR |
HR Probability |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.40 | 26.0% | +285 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | No | Patrick Corbin | 0.39 | 25.6% | +291 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | No | Patrick Corbin | 0.39 | 25.6% | +291 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | Chad Kuhl | 0.38 | 25.2% | +297 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | Luis Severino | 0.36 | 24.3% | +311 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | No | George Kirby | 0.36 | 24.3% | +311 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | Paul Blackburn | 0.35 | 23.9% | +319 |
| Rhys Hoskins | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.35 | 23.9% | +319 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.34 | 23.4% | +327 |
| Jared Walsh | LAA | Yes | George Kirby | 0.33 | 22.9% | +336 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | No | Beau Brieske | 0.30 | 21.4% | +366 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | No | George Kirby | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | Chad Kuhl | 0.29 | 20.9% | +378 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | Tylor Megill | 0.28 | 20.4% | +390 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | Paul Blackburn | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | Matthew Swarmer | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | Yes | George Kirby | 0.27 | 19.9% | +403 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.26 | 19.3% | +418 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | Yes | Beau Brieske | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | No | Rich Hill | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | Kevin Gausman | 0.25 | 18.7% | +433 |
| Kole Calhoun | TEX | Yes | Beau Brieske | 0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | Matthew Swarmer | 0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.24 | 18.2% | +450 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | No | Jalen Beeks | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Joey Gallo | NYY | No | Jalen Beeks | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | No | Tylor Megill | 0.23 | 17.6% | +469 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Patrick Wisdom | CHC | No | Joe Musgrove | 0.22 | 17.0% | +489 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | Triston McKenzie | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | Yes | Beau Brieske | 0.21 | 16.4% | +511 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | No | George Kirby | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | Tylor Megill | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Taylor Trammell | SEA | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.20 | 15.7% | +536 |
| Matt Davidson | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | No | Beau Brieske | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.19 | 15.1% | +563 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Yes | Matthew Swarmer | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Nick Castellanos | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | No | Paul Blackburn | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Chad Pinder | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | Tylor Megill | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Connor Joe | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Cal Raleigh | SEA | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.18 | 14.4% | +593 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | Matthew Swarmer | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Anthony Rendon | LAA | No | George Kirby | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | Paul Blackburn | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | Joe Musgrove | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Juan Soto | WSH | Yes | Zack Wheeler | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | Joe Musgrove | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | No | Beau Brieske | 0.17 | 13.8% | +627 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | Tylor Megill | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | Kevin Gausman | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | No | Tylor Megill | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Brandon Marsh | LAA | Yes | George Kirby | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.16 | 13.1% | +665 |
| Christian Bethancourt | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | Tylor Megill | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| J.T. Realmuto | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Trey Mancini | BAL | No | Kevin Gausman | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Frank Schwindel | CHC | No | Joe Musgrove | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | Matthew Swarmer | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | No | Matthew Swarmer | 0.15 | 12.4% | +709 |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | Yes | Martin Perez | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | Yes | Martin Perez | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Sam Huff | TEX | No | Beau Brieske | 0.14 | 11.7% | +758 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | Tylor Megill | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Javier Baez | DET | Yes | Martin Perez | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Josh Bell | WSH | Yes | Zack Wheeler | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Austin Meadows | DET | No | Martin Perez | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | George Kirby | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | No | Zack Wheeler | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Abraham Toro | SEA | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | Chad Kuhl | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.13 | 10.9% | +815 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | Triston McKenzie | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Jose Iglesias | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | No | Paul Blackburn | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | Luis Severino | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | Kevin Gausman | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Harold Castro | DET | No | Martin Perez | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Tyler Nevin | BAL | No | Kevin Gausman | 0.12 | 10.2% | +882 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Jackie Bradley | BOS | Yes | Paul Blackburn | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Maikel Franco | WSH | No | Zack Wheeler | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Austin Hedges | CLE | No | Chad Kuhl | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Nomar Mazara | SD | Yes | Matthew Swarmer | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | Luis Severino | 0.11 | 9.4% | +961 |
| Elvis Andrus | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Didi Gregorius | PHI | No | Patrick Corbin | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | Luis Severino | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | Joe Musgrove | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | Paul Blackburn | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Tomas Nido | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | Matthew Swarmer | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | Luis Severino | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| Brian Serven | COL | No | Triston McKenzie | 0.10 | 8.6% | +1056 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Miguel Cabrera | DET | Yes | Martin Perez | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | No | Zack Wheeler | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | Yes | Shohei Ohtani | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | Yes | Tylor Megill | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | No | Tyler Wells | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | Kevin Gausman | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Austin Nola | SD | No | Matthew Swarmer | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Alec Bohm | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Yadiel Hernandez | WSH | Yes | Zack Wheeler | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | Yes | Martin Perez | 0.09 | 7.9% | +1173 |
| Yan Gomes | CHC | No | Joe Musgrove | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Aaron Hicks | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| J.D. Davis | NYM | Yes | Aaron Ashby | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | Yes | Jalen Beeks | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Ramon Laureano | OAK | Yes | Rich Hill | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Ty France | SEA | No | Shohei Ohtani | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | Chad Kuhl | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Kyle Stowers | BAL | Yes | Kevin Gausman | 0.08 | 7.1% | +1318 |
| Amed Rosario | CLE | No | Chad Kuhl | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Yairo Munoz | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | Beau Brieske | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Matt Vierling | PHI | Yes | Patrick Corbin | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Vidal Brujan | TB | Yes | Luis Severino | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | Yes | Paul Blackburn | 0.07 | 6.2% | +1506 |
