MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Monday 6/20/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | Alex Faedo | 9.5 | 5.38 | 45.0% | 29.5% | 17.6% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| LAA | Kris Bubic | 9.0 | 5.14 | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| ATL | Logan Webb | 8.0 | 4.38 | 27.7% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| NYM | Trevor Rogers | 8.0 | 4.38 | 27.7% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| TOR | Lance Lynn | 8.5 | 4.35 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| MIL | Miles Mikolas | 7.5 | 4.19 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| CHW | Jose Berrios | 8.5 | 4.15 | 23.9% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| DET | Josh Winckowski | 9.5 | 4.12 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| PIT | Caleb Kilian | 8.0 | 4.02 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| CHC | JT Brubaker | 8.0 | 3.98 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| SD | Zach Davies | 7.0 | 3.88 | 19.6% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| KC | Noah Syndergaard | 9.0 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| MIA | David Peterson | 8.0 | 3.62 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| SF | Max Fried | 8.0 | 3.62 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| NYY | Shane McClanahan | 6.5 | 3.39 | 12.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| STL | Corbin Burnes | 7.5 | 3.31 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| ARI | Yu Darvish | 7.0 | 3.12 | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| TB | Gerrit Cole | 6.5 | 3.11 | 9.5% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | STL | 7.7 | 94.9% | 88.3% | 78.1% | 65.0% | 50.6% | 36.7% | 24.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | TB | 7.7 | 94.8% | 88.1% | 77.9% | 64.7% | 50.3% | 36.4% | 24.6% |
| Shane McClanahan | NYY | 6.5 | 88.9% | 77.7% | 63.2% | 47.5% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.3% |
| Yu Darvish | ARI | 6.3 | 87.4% | 75.3% | 60.1% | 44.2% | 29.8% | 18.5% | 10.6% |
| Max Fried | SF | 6.2 | 86.8% | 74.5% | 59.1% | 43.1% | 28.8% | 17.7% | 10.1% |
| Jose Berrios | CHW | 5.6 | 81.3% | 66.2% | 49.3% | 33.4% | 20.7% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
| Logan Webb | ATL | 5.4 | 78.1% | 61.9% | 44.5% | 29.1% | 17.2% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
| Lance Lynn | TOR | 5.2 | 75.8% | 58.9% | 41.4% | 26.3% | 15.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| Trevor Rogers | NYM | 5.1 | 75.4% | 58.4% | 40.9% | 25.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| JT Brubaker | CHC | 4.8 | 70.1% | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Miles Mikolas | MIL | 4.8 | 70.0% | 51.6% | 34.2% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| David Peterson | MIA | 4.6 | 67.4% | 48.7% | 31.4% | 18.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Alex Faedo | BOS | 4.0 | 56.5% | 36.9% | 21.3% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Noah Syndergaard | KC | 3.9 | 54.9% | 35.4% | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Zach Davies | SD | 3.9 | 54.9% | 35.4% | 20.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Josh Winckowski | DET | 3.9 | 53.7% | 34.2% | 19.2% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Caleb Kilian | PIT | 3.7 | 50.6% | 31.3% | 17.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Kris Bubic | LAA | 3.6 | 47.8% | 28.8% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Platoon? | HR PF |
Opp Pitcher |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | LAA | Yes | 103 | Kris Bubic | 27.9% | +259 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Alex Faedo | 24.3% | +311 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 24.2% | +312 |
| Aaron Judge | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 22.9% | +336 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Alex Faedo | 21.7% | +360 |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Yes | 95 | Caleb Kilian | 21.4% | +366 |
| George Springer | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 20.7% | +384 |
| Ji-Man Choi | TB | Yes | 92 | Gerrit Cole | 20.5% | +389 |
| Josh Donaldson | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 20.4% | +390 |
| Evan Longoria | SF | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 20.3% | +392 |
| Matt Chapman | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 20.1% | +398 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 19.9% | +403 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 108 | Noah Syndergaard | 19.5% | +412 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 19.5% | +413 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 19.3% | +417 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 18.9% | +429 |
| Willson Contreras | CHC | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 18.6% | +438 |
| Dan Vogelbach | PIT | Yes | 95 | Caleb Kilian | 18.3% | +447 |
| Jorge Soler | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 18.1% | +451 |
| Jack Suwinski | PIT | Yes | 95 | Caleb Kilian | 17.7% | +465 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 17.3% | +478 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 17.1% | +484 |
| Marcell Ozuna | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 17.1% | +485 |
| Adam Duvall | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 17.1% | +485 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 96 | Yu Darvish | 17.0% | +490 |
| Max Stassi | LAA | Yes | 103 | Kris Bubic | 16.9% | +491 |
| Wilmer Flores | SF | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 16.8% | +497 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 101 | Miles Mikolas | 16.7% | +498 |
| Rafael Ortega | CHC | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 16.5% | +505 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAA | No | 108 | Kris Bubic | 16.4% | +509 |
| Austin Slater | SF | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 16.1% | +520 |
| Nolan Arenado | STL | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 16.0% | +523 |
| Bo Bichette | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 15.7% | +535 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 103 | Miles Mikolas | 15.4% | +550 |
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 100 | Logan Webb | 15.3% | +553 |
| Luke Voit | SD | No | 96 | Zach Davies | 15.1% | +560 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 15.1% | +563 |
| Starling Marte | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 14.9% | +570 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 14.9% | +570 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | STL | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 14.7% | +579 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 14.7% | +579 |
| Ian Happ | CHC | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 14.7% | +581 |
| Manny Machado | SD | No | 96 | Zach Davies | 14.5% | +589 |
| Yoan Moncada | CHW | Yes | 111 | Jose Berrios | 14.5% | +591 |
| Anthony Rizzo | NYY | No | 92 | Shane McClanahan | 14.4% | +594 |
| Jonathan Schoop | DET | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 14.2% | +602 |
| Avisail Garcia | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 14.2% | +603 |
| Taylor Ward | LAA | Yes | 103 | Kris Bubic | 14.1% | +609 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | 103 | Miles Mikolas | 14.0% | +612 |
| Jurickson Profar | SD | Yes | 95 | Zach Davies | 14.0% | +613 |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 13.7% | +632 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 13.7% | +632 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 101 | Miles Mikolas | 13.4% | +647 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 13.3% | +650 |
| DJ LeMahieu | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 13.1% | +666 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | No | 99 | Alex Faedo | 12.9% | +675 |
| Joey Gallo | NYY | No | 92 | Shane McClanahan | 12.8% | +680 |
| Garrett Cooper | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 12.8% | +681 |
| Oneil Cruz | PIT | Yes | 95 | Caleb Kilian | 12.7% | +687 |
| Nolan Gorman | STL | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 12.7% | +689 |
| Kyle Isbel | KC | Yes | 108 | Noah Syndergaard | 12.6% | +691 |
| Lewin Diaz | MIA | No | 95 | David Peterson | 12.6% | +693 |
| Tim Anderson | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 12.2% | +720 |
| Michael Chavis | PIT | No | 92 | Caleb Kilian | 12.1% | +725 |
| Eduardo Escobar | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 12.1% | +728 |
| Eric Hosmer | SD | Yes | 95 | Zach Davies | 12.0% | +732 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 103 | Miles Mikolas | 11.9% | +740 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Alex Faedo | 11.5% | +769 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 11.5% | +769 |
| Jonathan Villar | CHC | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 11.3% | +783 |
| Travis d'Arnaud | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 11.3% | +785 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 11.3% | +785 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 97 | Logan Webb | 11.3% | +785 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Alex Faedo | 11.1% | +800 |
| Harold Castro | DET | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 11.1% | +800 |
| Randy Arozarena | TB | No | 94 | Gerrit Cole | 11.0% | +810 |
| Miguel Cabrera | DET | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 10.8% | +828 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 10.7% | +837 |
| Jason Heyward | CHC | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 10.6% | +842 |
| Pavin Smith | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 10.6% | +842 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 101 | Miles Mikolas | 10.4% | +858 |
| Luis Urias | MIL | No | 103 | Miles Mikolas | 10.4% | +861 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 9.9% | +912 |
| Santiago Espinal | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 9.9% | +912 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 9.7% | +931 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 93 | Alex Faedo | 9.7% | +931 |
| Brendan Donovan | STL | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 9.7% | +935 |
| Michael Taylor | KC | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 9.6% | +938 |
| Whit Merrifield | KC | No | 103 | Noah Syndergaard | 9.6% | +938 |
| Nico Hoerner | CHC | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 9.4% | +963 |
| Andrew Velazquez | LAA | Yes | 103 | Kris Bubic | 9.4% | +966 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 9.1% | +1002 |
| Luis Robert | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 9.1% | +1002 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | No | 96 | Yu Darvish | 9.0% | +1006 |
| Jorge Alfaro | SD | No | 96 | Zach Davies | 9.0% | +1006 |
| Miguel Rojas | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 9.0% | +1014 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 9.0% | +1014 |
| Jarren Duran | BOS | Yes | 93 | Alex Faedo | 9.0% | +1015 |
| Tyler O'Neill | STL | No | 103 | Corbin Burnes | 8.8% | +1031 |
| Tyrone Taylor | MIL | No | 103 | Miles Mikolas | 8.8% | +1031 |
| Joc Pederson | SF | No | 100 | Max Fried | 8.8% | +1036 |
| Christian Vazquez | BOS | No | 99 | Alex Faedo | 8.5% | +1072 |
| Spencer Torkelson | DET | No | 99 | Josh Winckowski | 8.5% | +1072 |
| David Peralta | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 8.4% | +1092 |
| Trent Grisham | SD | Yes | 95 | Zach Davies | 8.4% | +1092 |
| Jake Cronenworth | SD | Yes | 95 | Zach Davies | 8.4% | +1092 |
| Robbie Grossman | DET | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Jon Berti | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 8.2% | +1126 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | MIA | Yes | 98 | David Peterson | 8.2% | +1126 |
| Manuel Margot | TB | No | 94 | Gerrit Cole | 8.1% | +1129 |
| Dylan Carlson | STL | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 8.1% | +1141 |
| Christopher Morel | CHC | No | 92 | JT Brubaker | 8.0% | +1153 |
| Jose Trevino | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 7.9% | +1174 |
| Jeff McNeil | NYM | No | 95 | Trevor Rogers | 7.8% | +1188 |
| Jazz Chisholm | MIA | No | 95 | David Peterson | 7.8% | +1188 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 7.6% | +1212 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SD | No | 96 | Zach Davies | 7.5% | +1228 |
| Willi Castro | DET | Yes | 93 | Josh Winckowski | 7.5% | +1238 |
| Leury Garcia | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 7.4% | +1251 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | TOR | No | 106 | Lance Lynn | 7.4% | +1251 |
| Brett Phillips | TB | Yes | 92 | Gerrit Cole | 7.4% | +1251 |
| Francisco Mejia | TB | Yes | 92 | Gerrit Cole | 7.4% | +1251 |
| Darin Ruf | SF | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 7.3% | +1279 |
| Tommy Edman | STL | Yes | 101 | Corbin Burnes | 7.2% | +1282 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | No | 95 | Trevor Rogers | 7.1% | +1306 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 95 | Yu Darvish | 6.8% | +1363 |
| Alfonso Rivas | CHC | Yes | 95 | JT Brubaker | 6.8% | +1363 |
| Cal Mitchell | PIT | Yes | 95 | Caleb Kilian | 6.8% | +1363 |
| Andrew Benintendi | KC | Yes | 108 | Noah Syndergaard | 6.8% | +1370 |
| Matthew Duffy | LAA | Yes | 103 | Kris Bubic | 6.8% | +1376 |
| Vidal Brujan | TB | Yes | 92 | Gerrit Cole | 6.6% | +1407 |
| Yandy Diaz | TB | No | 94 | Gerrit Cole | 6.6% | +1409 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 106 | Jose Berrios | 6.5% | +1428 |
| J.D. Davis | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 6.5% | +1445 |
| Tomas Nido | NYM | Yes | 98 | Trevor Rogers | 6.5% | +1445 |
| Thairo Estrada | SF | Yes | 97 | Max Fried | 6.4% | +1460 |
| Gleyber Torres | NYY | Yes | 94 | Shane McClanahan | 6.2% | +1507 |
