MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/21/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at today's most appealing MLB lines from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Over 8.0 (-106): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model is into the over for tonight's Colorado Rockies-Miami Marlins clash, a game that features Ryan Feltner and Daniel Castano on the bump.
Miami's offense -- which ranks a respectable 15th in wOBA (.310) for the year -- should have success against Feltner. The Colorado righty has allowed 1.95 dingers per nine innings over 32 1/3 career frames, and left-handed hitters have mauled him in that small sample, posting a .374 wOBA and hitting a whopping 2.76 jacks per nine.
Castano has even worse numbers. Across 60 2/3 career innings, the southpaw owns a mere 11.5% strikeout rate with an ugly 5.48 SIERA. Righties are striking out just 10.4% of the time against him for his career. Colorado's offense is nothing to write home about on the road, but righties C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers and company are in a mouth-watering spot tonight.
We project the final score to be 4.94-3.91 in Miami's favor. That's 8.85 total runs, and we think the over cashes 52.7% of the time, giving it a two-star rating.
New York Mets at Houston Astros
Astros Moneyline (-128): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Two of the better teams in baseball open a series tonight in the Lone Star State. The Houston Astros are -128 moneyline favorites, but our algorithm sees them as even more likely to win.
A lot of it has to do with Houston's offense getting to face Trevor Williams.
The New York Mets' righty actually carries a 3.61 SIERA into this one, but over a much larger sample than his 35 2/3 innings from this year, Williams has proven to be a pretty meh hurler. He's posted a 4.64 SIERA for his career and had a 4.41 mark over 2020 and 2021. He will have his work cut out for him versus a Houston lineup that has the eighth-best wOBA (.320) and third-lowest strikeout rate (19.7%).
The Astros are countering with Jose Urquidy. After an uninspiring start to 2022, Urquidy has started to figure it out a little bit. He's recorded a single-game swinging-strike rate of at least 12.1% in two of his past three outings, and even in the midst of a slow start to the campaign, Urquidy is walking just 4.3% of hitters. While he'll be up against a stout Mets offense, Urquidy has the ability to keep New York in check.
Our model has the Astros winning by a score of 4.90-4.35, and we give Houston a 58.3% chance to win. The Astros' -128 moneyline price implies win odds of 56.1%. That creates a sliver of value, and we rate taking Houston to win as a one-star bet.
