3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/21/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Paul Goldschmidt To Hit a Home Run (+295)
We have a loaded 13-game slate of MLB action tonight, so let's jump into some props.
The St. Louis Cardinals come in with a strong 4.71 implied run total on the road versus the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew will have Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound, a pitcher we should be jumping to target via player props. Gonzalez has just 7.0 innings pitched this season, so we'll look back to last season for his stats.
Last year, Gonzalez allowed a .415 wOBA, .630 SLG, 5.24 xFIP, 2.23 HR/9, 47.0% hard-contact rate, and 37.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, and I'm excited about this matchup.
We turn to Paul Goldschmidt, who is on fire this season. He owns a 170 wRC+, .412 wOBA, .259 ISO, 42.2% fly-ball rate, and 33.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's been elite all season, and with this favorable matchup, Goldy is in a prime spot tonight. I'm also adding in Goldschmidt To Record an RBI (+105).
Roansy Contreras Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
With a great matchup, Roansy Contreras' strikeout prop is a good one to target.
Contreras is starting to make a name for himself in the majors and is a hard-throwing right-hander for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The rookie has some great strikeout potential. Contreras carries a 25.2% strikeout rate this season and comes in with only 32.1 innings pitched. It's a smaller sample size, so you may want to take it with a grain of salt, but I'm jumping in with both feet. He has a 13.2% swinging-strike rate, which is much higher than the league average of 11.1%.
He's been over this 5.5 line in two of his last three starts and can certainly continue that tonight versus the Chicago Cubs, who have a 23.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the 10th-highest in the league.
Considering Contreras has gone for seven and eight strikeouts this year, looking to his alternate line of 7+ Strikeouts (+230) is a solid option, as well.
Carlos Correa To Record an RBI (-105)
The Minnesota Twins have a juicy 5.21 implied run total tonight and are in a great matchup.
The Twins have one of the best hitting environments on the slate with the wind blowing out over 15 MPH and the temperature in the high 80s. Whenever we can find situations like this, we want to look here for player props since the offensive expectations are higher across the board.
The Cleveland Guardians will have Aaron Civale on the mound. He is set to make his first start since May 20th after dealing with a thigh issue. He recently made a rehab start in Triple-A, going for 76 pitches, so he should be set for this matchup. Due to the missed time, Civale has only 31.0 innings pitched this season. If we look back to last year, we see that he allowed a .491 SLG, 4.94 xFIP, 1.78 HR/9, 38.5% fly-ball rate, and 41.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.
It's a really mixed bag for Civale, and coming off an injury, I'm looking to the Twins' hitters. Carlos Correa is at the top of the list with his 127 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .160 ISO, 43.5% hard-contact rate, and 20.8% HR/FB ratio. He hits in the heart of the lineup for a team with a massive implied run total, so it all makes sense. So does adding Correa 2+ RBI (+300).
