3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/24/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+285)
With a loaded slate of MLB games, let's jump into some player props to close out the week.
There are a TON of great home run hitters on tonight's 14-game slate, and Rafael Devers is one of my favorites. Given the number of options tonight, I'll also be looking to Christian Walker (+330), Adolis Garcia (+330), and Mike Trout (+220).
The Boston Red Sox have a 4.35 implied run total and will be taking on the Cleveland Guardians, who will have Cal Quantrill on the bump. This season, Quantrill comes in allowing a .400 SLG, a 5.13 xFIP, a 12.8% walk rate, a 41.7% fly-ball rate, and an 8.6% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters.
The HR/FB ratio is interesting considering the league average versus left-handed hitters is sitting at 11.3%. Quantrill has a HR/FB rate lower than the likes of Corbin Burnes (13.6%), Gerrit Cole (12.5%), and Max Scherzer (16.7%). Not to mention the fact his fly-ball rate (41.7%) is worse than the league average, which is 37.0%. Long story short -- Quantrill is due for some regression in terms of the number of fly balls that go for home runs.
Devers is one of the best hitters in the league and comes in with a 183 wRC+, a .431 wOBA, a .290 ISO, a 39.9% fly-ball rate, and a 41.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
It's a great matchup no matter how you slice it, so I'm adding Devers To Record an RBI (+110), and if you're feeling spicy, Devers 2+ RBI (+360).
Alex Cobb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)
With a solid matchup, Alex Cobb's strikeout prop is one to look at.
Cobb's prop is sitting at 4.5 strikeouts with plus money on the over, and that's the spot I'm looking to. Cobb returned from his stint on the IL last week and went 4.0 innings with a total of 60 pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He posted 90 pitches or more in two of his starts earlier in the season, which is hopefully a good indication he will be back near that level tonight.
He comes in with a 27.2% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, an 11.0% swinging-strike rate, and a 2.64 xFIP this season -- quality numbers across the board. He has posted at least six strikeouts in five of his nine starts, a hopeful sign he can get back to that level with an increased pitch count.
Cobb will be taking on the Cincinnati Reds, who come in with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the 13th-highest in the league. This is a solid matchup for Cobb, who should be trending up after his return from the injured list.
Corey Seager To Record an RBI (+100)
The Texas Rangers have a very solid 4.94 implied run total, which is the fourth-highest on the slate.
There are plenty of great player props tonight, but Corey Seager To Record an RBI at even money is one of my favorites. He's going up against Paolo Espino, who comes in with a 4.27 xFIP, a low 14.8% strikeout rate, a 34.9% fly-ball rate, and a 32.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
There's nothing about those numbers that should have you worried, and when it eventually gets to the Washington Nationals' bullpen, Seager will be in an even better spot.
Seager is sporting a 101 wRC+, a .306 wOBA, a .183 ISO, a 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He's locked in at the plate, notching hits in 8 of his last 10 games, so there's a lot to love about this matchup. Add Seager 2+ RBI (+360).
