3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/27/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Byron Buxton To Hit a Home Run (+245)/Carlos Correa To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Minnesota Twins have a 4.11 implied run total and a great matchup for some home runs tonight.
Both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are taking on Triston McKenzie, who comes in allowing a .485 SLG, 4.59 xFIP, 1.77 HR/9, 53.4% fly-ball rate, and 39.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. That is a very dangerous mix to have because the potential downside is massive when he faces a bunch of power hitters as he is tonight.
Buxton has a 147 wRC+, .326 ISO, 52.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Correa owns a 135 wRC+, .181 ISO, 31.0% fly-ball rate, and 38.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.
Given this favorable matchup, I also like adding Buxton To Record an RBI (+115) and Correa To Record an RBI (+140).
Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Lucas Giolito is a strong pitcher and has a great matchup tonight.
Giolito's strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 tonight, and I'm going with the over. He's carrying a 27.2% strikeout rate this season and a 13.3% swinging-strike rate. While those are both good numbers, he can push those even higher. Giolito posted a 32% and 33% strikeout rate in two of the last three seasons, along with a 15% swinging-strike rate or higher in each of the last three seasons.
The start of the season was a bit weird for Giolito, being on both the injured list and the COVID list, he didn't have a ton of consistency. Given a larger sample size, he has the skill to climb toward the numbers he's posted in recent seasons. I'm not worried about some lower numbers this year, as the rocky start plays a part here. Giolito has been over the 6.5 mark in 7 of his 12 starts this season and has shown the potential for 10 strikeouts.
To put a bow on all of this, he's going up against the Los Angeles Angels, who come in with a 26.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is dead last in the league. Given the matchup, I'll also add Giolito 8+ strikeouts +154.
C.J. Cron To Record an RBI (+100)
The Colorado Rockies are at home with a 4.97 implied run total. Any time we can get some even money player props at Coors Field, I'm going to be looking there.
C.J. Cron is the player to look at tonight at even money to record an RBI. He's the cleanup hitter for a team at the best hitter's park in the league -- it's really that simple. Cron comes in with a 120 wRC+, .289 ISO, .363 wOBA, 42.3% fly-ball rate, and 30.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season.
He will be taking on Tyler Anderson, who is off to a solid start this year but could be due for some regression. Anderson has a 47.8% fly-ball rate but is only allowing a 6.7% HR/FB ratio and 0.79 HR/9 versus right-handed hitters.
The home runs should start coming against Anderson, and Cron could be the one to get it started. I still prefer the RBI prop overall and will look to add Cron 2+ RBI (+310).
