3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/29/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Patrick Wisdom To Hit a Home Run (+350) and Willson Contreras To Hit a Home Run (+380)
When it comes to the Chicago Cubs, they have a few hitters worth considering for home run props tonight.
The Cubs only have a 3.97 implied run and it seems a bit too low considering the matchup they have against Hunter Greene. There's no doubt Greene is an exciting young pitcher with a strong 28.9% strikeout rate this season, but there are some significant downsides. Greene is allowing 1.78 HR/9 to lefties and 3.38 HR/9 to righties this season. While he has plenty of swing-and-miss potential, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard.
Allowing a .596 SLG, a 54.0% fly-ball rate, and a 37.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters is a recipe for disaster. It's nearly the same versus left-handed hitters, and that has me interested in the Cubs' power hitters tonight.
Patrick Wisdom qualifies, and he comes in with a 101 wRC+, a .223 ISO, a 51.4% fly-ball rate, and a 39.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. That strong fly-ball rate will always make him a threat for a home run.
As for Willson Contreras, he has a 121 wRC+, a .136 ISO, a 31.9% fly-ball rate, and a 45.9% hard-contact rate. The ISO and the fly-ball rate are a bit lower than I would ideally like to see, but the matchup versus Greene is too good to pass up.
Of course, we gotta add Wisdom To Record an RBI (+150) and Contreras To Record an RBI (+155).
Kyle Wright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)
This is a classic case of loving the bet and hating the juice.
That's the best way to put things for Kyle Wright and his strikeout prop tonight, which is only sitting at 4.5. I love the over, but don't love the juice at -158.
Wright has been solid this season with a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. That has led him to pick up five-plus strikeouts in 11 of his 15 starts this season. In seven of those starts, he has gone for seven strikeouts or more.
Wright is also trusted by the Atlanta Braves to go deeper into games, posting 91 pitches or more in six of his last seven starts. In two, he topped 100 pitches. He will be up against the Philadelphia Phillies, who come in with a 22.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (15th in the league).
It's not an overwhelmingly favorable matchup, but it's also not a bad one. I'm trusting Wright and his consistency; it's that simple. I'll also look to add Wright 6+ Strikeouts (+136) and a sprinkle on Wright 7+ Strikeouts (+285).
Austin Riley To Record An RBI (+140)
Let's stay in that Braves at Phillies matchup, but turn to the offense.
Specifically, the Braves' offense since they are going up against Ranger Suarez -- a pitcher we absolutely want to target for player props. The Braves have a 4.79 implied run total, which is the third-highest on the slate, so it's not going to be a surprise to see their very powerful offense put up some runs.
This season Suarez is allowing a .447 SLG, a .355 wOBA, a 4.45 xFIP, 1.15 HR/9, an 11.0% walk rate, and a low 17.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters. There's legitimately nothing there that should have you worried about Suarez. He's not a great pitcher and should be in for a rough game against a right-hand dominant Braves lineup.
We turn to Austin Riley, who is boasting a 177 wRC+, a .431 wOBA, a .338 ISO, a 40.8% fly-ball rate, and a 53.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Whew, boy! Those are some juicy stats for this matchup.
Riley is an elite option for this matchup, and I'm also going with Riley 2+ RBI (+490).
