3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/5/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run (+215)/Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+250)
This Philadelphia Phillies have a very strong 5.23 implied run total tonight and plenty of offensive potential.
That implied run total is the second-highest on the slate, and that's because they are going up against the Washington Nationals, who will have Paolo Espino on the mound tonight.
This season, Espino is allowing 1.50 HR/9 versus right-handed hitters, along with a 45.1% fly-ball rate and 35.2% hard-contact rate. This season versus lefties, Espino is allowing only 0.86 HR/9 but has a 42.4% fly-ball rate and 36.4% hard-contact rate. His fly-ball and hard-contact rates are nearly identical, but he is allowing far fewer home runs to lefties. He's due for a bit of regression versus lefties, which means more home runs should be on the way.
This leads us to Kyle Schwarber, who comes in with a 135 wRC+, .311 ISO, .367 wOBA, 51.2% fly-ball rate, and 35.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Next would be Rhys Hoskins, who comes in with a 120 wRC+, .219 ISO, .345 wOBA, 38.3% fly-ball rate, and 31.8% hard-contact rate versus righties.
Since we're going with a home run, it's reasonable to also add Schwarber To Record an RBI (-105) and Hoskins To Record an RBI (+105).
Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Nick Pivetta has an elite matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.
Pivetta will be at home and on the mound for the Boston Red Sox, and he's set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays in an AL East matchup. This season, the Rays have a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league. They are rather undisciplined at the plate, and it gives the opposing pitchers plenty of strikeout potential.
Pivetta is carrying a 23.6% strikeout rate overall this season and has flashed some serious upside recently, posting a 35.7% and 45.8% strikeout rate in two of his last five starts. That led him to rack up 10 and 11 strikeouts in those starts, which is rather encouraging considering he has a very favorable matchup in front of him.
Pivetta has also thrown 97 pitches or more in seven straight starts, so there's very little chance he gets pulled early.
Add all of this up and it points to the over 5.5 strikeouts (+130), as well as Pivetta 7+ Strikeouts (+280).
Jose Ramirez To Record an RBI (+105)
Jose Ramirez is a ̶g̶o̶o̶d̶ great hitter.
That's what this player prop at plus money boils down to. JRam is great despite the fact he doesn't have a single RBI in his last 10 games. Baseball is a weird sport sometimes, and players will go through stretches that will even leave someone with the fourth-most (63) RBIs in the league to not have one for 10 straight games.
That is what we have with Ramirez, who comes in with a 189 wRC+, .433 wOBA, .328 ISO, and 53.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those are elite numbers from top to bottom, and I'm trusting Ramirez tonight versus Drew Hutchison.
Over the course of his career, Hutchison has allowed a 4.44 xFIP, 1.31 HR/9, 38.6% fly-ball rate, and 32.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters.
