3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/12/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+220)/Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (+290)
We have a loaded slate of games and plenty of player props to look at tonight.
With so many games on the slate and so many hitters in great spots, I have an interest in several players. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are at the top of my list, but I'll also have some action on Patrick Wisdom (+260), Eugenio Suarez (+300), and Byron Buxton (+330).
The New York Yankees have a juicy 5.32 implied run total, which is the third-highest on tonight's slate, and they could push past that easily.
They are going up against Graham Ashcraft, who is in his first MLB season, coming in with a total of 49.2 innings pitched. In that time, he has allowed a .516 SLG, .387 wOBA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.83 HR/9, 37.8% hard-contact rate, and 34.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.
Those are some dangerous numbers to be sporting versus the league's best offense, so it's no surprise Judge and Stanton are top options.
Judge comes in with a 179 wRC+, .420 wOBA, .324 ISO, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 43.1% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Stanton is much of the same with a 138 wRC+, .361 wOBA, .292 ISO, 36.9% fly-ball rate, and 42.3% hard-contact rate in the split.
They are both elite power-hitters and have a very favorable matchup tonight. Of course, we also have to add Judge To Record an RBI (-105) and Stanton To Record an RBI (+100).
Josiah Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
Josiah Gray has gas on the mound.
The Washington Nationals' pitcher is putting together a good season and has a favorable matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight to keep it going.
This year, Gray has a 26.8% strikeout rate and a 12.9% swinging-strike rate, both of which are in the top 17 among pitchers who have at least 80 innings pitched. Gray has been over this 5.5 mark in four of his last five starts, including two starts with 9 and 11 strikeouts.
He's good, and there's no other way to put it.
He will be taking on the Mariners, who come in with a 22.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 14th in the league. We have seen the Mariners' strikeout rate in this split rise in each month of the season, and it sits at 25.0% in the month of July. Yes, it's a small sample size, but they are trending down -- ever so slightly -- versus a pitcher in a groove right now.
With all things considered, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider Gray 7+ Strikeouts (+250) and Gray 8+ Strikeouts (+520).
Juan Soto To Record an RBI (+150)
RBI props continue to amaze me.
Juan Soto to record an RBI tonight is sitting at +150. PLUS ONE FIFTY.
A single RBI from one of the best hitters in the league is plus money. Yes, RBI production can be variable, and he could go a few games without recording one, but we aren't laying any juice, and it's a solid matchup.
Soto is taking on Chris Flexen, who is allowing a .333 SLG, 4.91 xFIP, 10.8% walk rate, and 44.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Flexen isn't a pitcher you need to be worried about, and Soto is hot at the plate with four multi-hit games over his last five.
On top of that, Soto comes in with a 169 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .272 ISO, and 34.9% fly-ball rate versus right-handers. Add Soto 2+ RBIs (+550), too, because that's an insane price for an elite hitter.
