3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/13/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+320)
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+360)
Tonight, we turn to the Cleveland Guardians for a few home run props, so let's jump in.
The Guardians are at home to take on the Chicago White Sox, who will have Lucas Giolito on the mound. There's no doubt Giolito is a good pitcher (overall) but he's struggling this season; there's no other way to put it.
This season, he has a higher walk rate, HR/9, barrel rate, hard-contact rate, and fly-ball rate compared to last season.
When we break things down further, he's allowing a .600 SLG, a .416 wOBA, a 4.62 xFIP, 2.51 HR/9, and a 42.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this year. It doesn't matter how good he was in the past; if he's struggling right now, we should look to attack that.
We turn to Jose Ramirez, who comes in with 181 wRC+, a .424 wOBA, a .316 ISO, and a 53.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. He loves faces righties this year as 14 of his 17 home runs have come against them.
Franmil Reyes dealt with some injuries earlier in the year, so some of his stats don't jump off the page. He still carries a .171 ISO, a 93 wRC+, a 38.9% hard-contact rate, and a 35.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.
As always, we should look to correlate the bet and add Ramirez To Record an RBI (+125) and Reyes To Record an RBI (+165).
Tim Anderson 2+ Total Bases (+100)
We stay in that same game but flip to the other side of the plate with Tim Anderson.
The White Sox have been up and down as a team this year, but Anderson is as consistent as they come. He is sporting a 102 wRC+, a .309 wOBA, a .324 BABIP, and a very low 14.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's not a power guy in any capacity, but he gets on base, doesn't waste chances at the plate, and we're getting him at plus money tonight.
He will be taking on Aaron Civale, who is allowing a .374 wOBA, a .500 SLG, a 4.46 xFIP, and 1.50 HR/9. Civale has a lower 19.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Even though Civale gives up some power to righties, I'm not expecting to see that from Anderson. He leads off, gets on base, and is always in a spot to score.
The latter of which leads into my final point of Anderson To Record a Run (+100). The leadoff hitter is at plus money. I'll take it.
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Are the Baltimore Orioles the best team in the league?
A nine-game winning streak for the Orioles has vaulted them to a .500 record, and they're looking good. However, the Orioles are still striking out a good amount, and we can look to pitchers facing them.
To be specific, the Orioles have a 25.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league.
Justin Steele comes in with a 22.7% strikeout rate this season, which is rather modest, but he's looked good recently. Steele has posted at least a 27% strikeout rate in each of his last three starts -- and in four of his last seven. This has allowed Steele to rack up six-plus strikeouts or more in each of those four starts, including eight and nine strikeouts in a pair of the outings.
Steele is trending up and gets to face a team that strikeout a ton. Considering Steele's recent surge, it's reasonable to add Steele 7+ Strikeouts (+215), too.
